Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:03:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x70df…bca8 sports 552 markets active 2h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$447 (-2%) realized −$557 · open +$110
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate56%295W / 235L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$805now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$131
7 days+$0
14 days+$85
30 days+$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$369
other 16% −$7
crypto 5% −$28
politics 0% +$24
world 0% −$10
tech 0% +$6
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -1.7% -11.1% 60% 60% -9.5%
≤30d 83 -7.2% -16.0% 64% 46% -7.1%
≤90d 401 -35.8% -41.9% 44% 30% -29.5%
all 530 -9.0% -17.6% 56% 45% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 45% -11.3%
10% -25.5% 39% -19.8%
15% -32.7% 35% -27.6%
20% -39.3% 32% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +34% → late -52% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$28 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$805
Realized−$557
Unrealized+$110
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses295 / 235
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions18
Markets (closed)530 / 552
History coverage236d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 530 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 100¢ $150 $224 +$74 (+49%)
Timothy Chalamet confirmed to be EsDeeKid by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $150 $154 +$4 (+3%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 57¢ 100¢ $50 $88 +$38 (+75%)
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 66¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-9%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 88¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+11%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 56¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-16%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 32¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+48%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 57¢ 46¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-18%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+22%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-29%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 20 $15 +$2 +15%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $10 +$20 +199%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $20 +$17 +86%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$39 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 +$25 +70%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $76 +$30 +40%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $20 +$4 +18%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$13 +42%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $30 +$8 +27%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $18 +$15 +83%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $25 +$19 +76%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $25 +$2 +8%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $51 +$71 +140%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $20 +$3 +17%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $80 +$20 +25%
Spread: Knicks (-12.5) Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $20 +$18 +90%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $220 +$20 +9%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 10 $25 −$25 -99%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $15 +$6 +37%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 09 $15 +$16 +105%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $36 +$39 +109%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 08 $30 −$30 -98%
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $20 −$20 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 Jun 06 $31 +$41 +134%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 10.5 Jun 06 $15 +$12 +76%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 05 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 05 $25 −$25 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 04 $30 $0 +1%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 04 $20 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 04 $56 +$31 +56%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 24.5 Jun 04 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $10 $0 +5%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 03 $30 −$30 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $25 −$25 -99%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 31 $20 +$2 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 57¢ $51 1h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 2h
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $151 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 25¢ $15 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 91¢ $17 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 39h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $20 39h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 39h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Will United State BUY 12¢ $10 39h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 33¢ $10 42h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $35 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $25 3d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal BUY 12¢ $15 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $76 4d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 73¢ $25 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 4d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 59¢ $51 4d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 84¢ $20 5d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 81¢ $20 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 36¢ $15 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 5d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 AND Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND BUY 13¢ $10 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 6d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $18 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $805.10 · official $820.10 · 1108 history records