Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:46:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x70e4…89e7 world 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 483d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$24 (+2%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate39%16W / 25L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$22
other 22% −$1
weather 9% −$11
finance 5% −$2
crypto 3% $0
sports 3% +$15
politics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.9% -8.7% 22% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 18 +6.8% -3.4% 22% 6% -7.2%
≤90d 20 +6.2% -3.9% 25% 5% -7.2%
all 41 +0.4% -9.1% 39% 5% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 5% -7.6%
10% -17.8% 5% -16.5%
15% -25.8% 5% -24.5%
20% -33.0% 2% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 79% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.98 per $1 lost it wins $1.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

483d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses16 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage483d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 86¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 21 $49 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $81 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $6 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $37 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $65 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $4 $0 -2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $59 +$6 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $58 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $58 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $66 −$5 -7%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $44 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $62 −$2 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $53 −$2 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $52 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 24 $3 $0 -10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $17 +$23 +137%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $50 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 22 $4 $0 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 21 $10 +$1 +6%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 11 $1 $0 +3%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 11 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 11 $2 $0 +3%
Will valid votes be between 36 million and 38 million in South Korean Jun 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2025? May 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jayson Tatum play in Game 5? May 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Justin Trudeau be named in Epstein files? Apr 01 $34 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 67°F or higher on March 30? Mar 31 $33 $0 +1%
Istanbul mayor İmamoğlu released from custody in March? Mar 30 $1 $0 +0%
Houthis successfully attack shipping in March? Mar 30 $33 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on March 31? Mar 29 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Mar 29 $32 $0 +2%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will 'Snow White' gross between 44-49m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $31 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or below on March 22? Mar 23 $32 $0 +1%
Will Doc Rivers make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Mar 21 $25 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 14-21? Mar 20 $8 −$2 -21%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 65°F or higher on March 19? Mar 19 $2 $0 -21%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on March 5? Mar 04 $39 −$12 -30%
Will Trump's 2025 joint address get >46m viewers? Mar 04 $7 $0 +0%
Holy Cross vs. Navy Mar 04 $31 +$15 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $8 12m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $41 12m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $49 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 13h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 14h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $15 18h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $23 18h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $3 23h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $34 23h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $5 25h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $5 25h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $18 25h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $37 25h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $65 29h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 41h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 41h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 43h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 43h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $71 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $71 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $17 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $17 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 75¢ $10 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 75¢ $56 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $24 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $35 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.62 · official $0.00 (match) · 136 history records