Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:14:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x70e5…649c other 60 markets active 0h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$256 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$252
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate60%28W / 19L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$360per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$4,150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days−$68
14 days−$130
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% +$43
other 28% +$176
world 17% +$48
tech 1% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.9% -8.7% 83% 83% -20.3%
≤30d 13 -12.7% -21.0% 69% 46% -9.2%
≤90d 35 -24.5% -31.7% 51% 26% -11.0%
all 47 -18.4% -26.2% 60% 23% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.2% 23% -9.5%
10% -33.3% 9% -18.2%
15% -39.7% 6% -26.1%
20% -45.6% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$57 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$4,150
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$252
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses28 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Open positions13
Markets (closed)47 / 60
History coverage125d
Avg bet$360
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No 85¢ 92¢ $1,627 $1,770 +$144 (+9%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 88¢ 89¢ $1,124 $1,138 +$14 (+1%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 89¢ $234 $267 +$33 (+14%)
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 96¢ $188 $191 +$4 (+2%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 81¢ 92¢ $162 $184 +$22 (+14%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 80¢ $112 $121 +$8 (+7%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 98¢ $93 $98 +$5 (+5%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $85 $86 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $83 $82 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 78¢ $66 $78 +$12 (+19%)
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 68¢ 70¢ $54 $56 +$2 (+4%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 44¢ $41 $44 +$2 (+6%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 84¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $71 +$29 +41%
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $89 +$11 +12%
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $88 +$12 +14%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $87 +$13 +15%
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $81 +$19 +24%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $153 −$152 -100%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $78 −$7 -8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $47 +$3 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $42 +$8 +18%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $27 −$27 -99%
Will Robert Abela be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 20 Jun 04 $1,012 +$88 +9%
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives i Jun 04 $1,364 +$53 +4%
Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22? May 17 $198 −$90 -46%
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? May 17 $108 +$292 +270%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 May 15 $2,156 +$28 +1%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Trump say "Farmer" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 12 $196 −$194 -99%
Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United May 11 $384 +$16 +4%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 A May 04 $372 +$12 +3%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Apr 30 $1,461 −$53 -4%
Will the All India N.R. Congress (AINRC) win the most seats in the 202 Apr 29 $71 −$2 -2%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Apr 21 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgaria Apr 21 $702 +$46 +6%
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Apr 08 $1,409 +$54 +4%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Apr 07 $892 −$89 -10%
Military action against Iran ends on March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 31 $1,200 +$32 +3%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026? Mar 25 $66 +$9 +14%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026? Mar 25 $72 +$27 +37%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? Mar 25 $1,165 +$68 +6%
Iran leadership change by March 13? Mar 18 $1,076 +$124 +12%
Will Partido Popular (PP) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Electi Mar 16 $135 +$9 +6%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 16 $959 +$61 +6%
Will Communist Party of Nepal (UML) win the third-most seats in the Ne Mar 13 $77 +$6 +8%
Will CD win the second most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate electio Mar 10 $186 +$14 +8%
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parli Mar 09 $168 −$136 -81%
Will John Cornyn win the first round of the Republican Senate primary Mar 08 $92 +$8 +9%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 06 $95 +$15 +16%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Mar 06 $87 −$3 -3%
Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand? Mar 03 $629 +$10 +2%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,800 on the final trading day of February Feb 28 $269 +$8 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 68¢ $54 2m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $83 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $85 2h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $29 4d
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $39 5d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $0 6d
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $33 6d
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $40 6d
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $40 6d
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $77 6d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $71 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 80¢ $40 10d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 88¢ $217 10d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $76 10d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 88¢ $656 10d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 88¢ $43 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY No 85¢ $42 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY No 93¢ $47 10d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 88¢ $7 11d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $27 11d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 88¢ $73 11d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 88¢ $59 11d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $50 14d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $28 14d
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $57 14d
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $10 14d
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $15 14d
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $8 14d
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $76 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,149.83 · official $4,149.83 (match) · 311 history records