Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:16:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
70 0x70e7…55d4 other 144 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,774 (+1%) realized +$1,773 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate18%26W / 116L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$1,464per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$698now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$29
30 days−$185
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$722
politics 40% −$97
sports 10% +$1,103
world 2% −$3
culture 1% −$5
crypto 1% +$4
tech 1% −$1
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 32 -6.4% -15.3% 3% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 85 -1.2% -10.6% 5% 2% -9.0%
all 142 +1.6% -8.1% 18% 14% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 14% -8.8%
10% -16.9% 13% -17.5%
15% -24.9% 13% -25.5%
20% -32.3% 11% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,724) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$10 · ×10.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.49 per $1 lost it wins $2.49
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$698
Realized+$1,773
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses26 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)142 / 144
History coverage132d
Avg bet$1,464
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $426 $427 +$1 (+0%)
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $271 $271 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $262 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 24 $292 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $270 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $3,620 −$4 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $339 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $1,865 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $5,518 −$6 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $874 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $1,049 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,066 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $2,990 −$4 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,370 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $1,373 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,374 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $2,755 −$3 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,602 −$3 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $2,423 −$4 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $1,521 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,615 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $3,855 −$4 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $1,654 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,587 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,310 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $2,648 −$3 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,540 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 02 $974 +$3 +0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $695 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $1,907 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $4,568 −$4 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $4,386 −$5 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $2,420 −$3 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 26 $1,639 −$3 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,631 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $4,466 −$5 -0%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $4,156 −$5 -0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 23 $48 +$64 +134%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,363 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $5,552 −$7 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $8,875 −$10 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 19 $1,350 −$2 -0%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 19 $1,674 +$1,277 +76%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $3,904 −$4 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,724 −$3 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $1,087 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $2,742 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 26 $1,570 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 25 $1,552 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $271 2h
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $262 42h
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $262 46h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $292 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $292 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $270 3d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $270 3d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $253 3d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $253 3d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $339 3d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $339 4d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $947 7d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $948 7d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,049 7d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,050 8d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $872 8d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $874 8d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,047 8d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,049 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,064 9d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,066 9d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,343 10d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,345 10d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,368 10d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,370 10d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,371 11d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,373 11d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,372 11d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,374 12d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $426 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $698.43 · official $698.43 (match) · 469 history records