Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:18:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x70eb…c63e other 180 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%23W / 156L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 26% +$1
politics 23% −$3
sports 21% −$7
economics 9% −$2
crypto 8% −$1
culture 5% −$1
world 5% −$1
finance 2% −$2
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -1.4% -10.8% 0% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 33 -0.3% -9.8% 9% 0% -9.7%
all 179 -0.2% -9.7% 13% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses23 / 156
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)179 / 180
History coverage174d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 179 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $44 −$1 -2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $49 −$1 -2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 18 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $50 $0 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $48 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 06 $45 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 06 $39 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $170 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 05 $47 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Apr 05 $103 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 05 $40 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 05 $47 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 04 $259 −$1 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 04 $154 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 04 $91 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 03 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 03 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $102 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $64 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 02 $153 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 02 $92 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $105 $0 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Apr 01 $44 −$1 -2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 01 $89 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 01 $42 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 31 $86 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $102 −$1 -1%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 31 $215 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 30 $91 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 30 $93 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 30 $75 $0 +1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 29 $285 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? Mar 29 $40 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 29 $79 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 28 $174 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 28 $93 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Mar 27 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 27 $42 $0 +0%
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 27 $93 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 27 $47 $0 -0%
Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 26 $49 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 26 $161 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $59 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 26 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $103 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 25 $45 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Mar 25 $57 −$2 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $38 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $43 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $44 8d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $43 20d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $43 20d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 90¢ $48 28d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 91¢ $49 28d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $40 41d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $40 41d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $43 81d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $43 82d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL No 97¢ $48 82d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 97¢ $48 82d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $46 82d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $46 82d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 96¢ $45 82d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 96¢ $6 82d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 96¢ $5 82d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 96¢ $34 82d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $39 82d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $39 83d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $49 83d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $49 83d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $47 83d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $47 83d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 96¢ $49 83d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 96¢ $49 84d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $40 84d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $40 84d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $47 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.78 · official $37.78 (match) · 628 history records