Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:37:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
70 0x70f2…1652 sports 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$47 (+2%) realized −$20 · open +$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%25W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$640
crypto 22% −$43
other 15% −$171
world 2% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 +0.3% -9.3% 38% 38% +1.3%
≤30d 66 +0.3% -9.3% 38% 38% +1.3%
≤90d 66 +0.3% -9.3% 38% 38% +1.3%
all 66 +0.3% -9.3% 38% 38% +1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 38% +1.3%
10% -18.0% 36% -8.4%
15% -25.9% 36% -17.2%
20% -33.2% 36% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$28 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$167
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$67
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses25 / 41
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)66 / 68
History coverage6d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 60¢ 100¢ $100 $167 +$67 (+67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 +$70 +172%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $31 +$38 +124%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $20 +$91 +442%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $31 −$2 -6%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $30 −$30 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$60 +119%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 +$40 +158%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $41 +$41 +101%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $30 +$30 +97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $41 +$56 +138%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$35 +68%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$61 +121%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $56 −$55 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $61 +$62 +101%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Gavi Paez: 1+ goals Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Pedri: 1+ goals Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$30 +146%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$36 +140%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $51 +$42 +83%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Jun 14 $30 +$31 +101%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$3 -5%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $31 +$72 +234%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $101 +$60 +60%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $256 +$57 +22%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $37 +$66 +180%
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $20 −$3 -17%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $20 +$97 +474%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -94%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $101 +$71 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $101 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $20 11h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $31 11h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 36¢ $41 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 40¢ $29 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $31 11h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 49¢ $30 18h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 52¢ $51 18h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 29¢ $31 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $25 22h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $41 22h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $30 24h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 45¢ $51 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 41¢ $41 26h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $20 35h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $20 35h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 59¢ $51 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $21 36h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 45¢ $51 38h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $56 2d
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $20 2d
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $20 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $61 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $61 2d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 50¢ $102 2d
Gavi Paez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $20 2d
Pedri: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $20 2d
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 57¢ $41 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $21 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $166.58 · official $166.58 (match) · 104 history records