Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:33:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x70f3…25eb crypto 61 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$120 (+5%) realized +$120 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate79%48W / 13L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day73.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +11.1% +0.5% 79% 34% -7.9%
≤30d 61 +11.1% +0.5% 79% 34% -7.9%
≤90d 61 +11.1% +0.5% 79% 34% -7.9%
all 61 +11.1% +0.5% 79% 34% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.5% 34% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -9.1% 18% -16.7%
15% -17.9% 13% -24.7%
20% -25.9% 13% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$25 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$120
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses48 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)61 / 61
History coverage2d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day73.2
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 61 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $62 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $60 +$3 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $44 +$7 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $62 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $71 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $47 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 21 $63 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $58 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $57 +$3 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 21 $48 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$5 +669%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $36 +$24 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 21 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 21 $64 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 21 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 21 $37 +$31 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $47 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 21 $47 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 21 $54 +$5 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 21 $46 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $60 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$11 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $19 +$44 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $33 +$28 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 21 $63 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $57 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $42 +$12 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $48 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $56 +$3 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $56 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $49 +$3 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 20 $49 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 20 $43 +$11 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $56 +$18 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $62 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $60 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $12 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $19 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $13 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $12 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $23 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $71 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $47 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $63 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $8 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $3 11h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $58 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $57 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $32 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $16 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $8 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $14 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $36 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.45 · official $0.00 (match) · 157 history records