Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:29:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x70f3…2822 crypto 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11,927 (-59%) realized −$10,655 · open −$1,272
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate16%5W / 27L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$558per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$523now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$1,736
economics 35% −$6,749
crypto 20% −$655
other 6% −$1,168
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-58.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 26 -76.7% -79.0% 8% 8% -77.4%
all 32 -54.3% -58.7% 16% 16% -69.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.7% 16% -69.2%
10% -62.6% 12% -72.1%
15% -66.3% 12% -74.8%
20% -69.6% 12% -77.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -75% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -18% → late -91% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$264 vs −$384 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$523
Realized−$10,655
Unrealized−$1,272
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses5 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)32 / 36
History coverage109d
Avg bet$558
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $376 $311 −$65 (-17%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $856 $107 −$749 (-88%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $512 $75 −$437 (-85%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $50 $30 −$20 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 12 $2,547 −$2,538 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 02 $1,405 −$13 -1%
Netanyahu out by April 30? May 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? May 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 28 $3,144 −$3,139 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 April 13-19? Apr 20 $168 −$168 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 16 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 6-12? Apr 13 $300 −$231 -77%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 April 6-12? Apr 13 $170 −$119 -70%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 11 $271 −$271 -100%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 05 $900 −$900 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? Apr 04 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 01 $252 −$252 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $200 −$200 -100%
Starmer out by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $198 −$198 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 9-15? Mar 31 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? Mar 31 $897 −$897 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 16-22? Mar 31 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 9-15? Mar 31 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 2-8? Mar 31 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 March 16-22? Mar 31 $190 −$190 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 March 16-22? Mar 31 $241 −$241 -100%
Will Solana dip to $80 March 16-22? Mar 31 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 27 $400 −$57 -14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 27 $500 +$104 +21%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 March 16-22? Mar 23 $300 +$439 +146%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 March 16-22? Mar 19 $91 +$102 +112%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 16-22? Mar 18 $200 −$117 -58%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 9-15? Mar 16 $229 +$536 +234%
Will Solana dip to $70 in March? Mar 13 $96 −$46 -48%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 13 $100 −$51 -51%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 March 9-15? Mar 13 $200 +$137 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $52 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 1¢ $395 1h
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 0¢ $10 36d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 0¢ $58 39d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 0¢ $5 40d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 0¢ $28 42d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 0¢ $43 43d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 0¢ $88 43d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $331 46d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $1,391 46d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $256 47d
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY Yes 0¢ $104 50d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1,254 50d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 1¢ $140 52d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $199 57d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $222 59d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $350 59d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $181 59d
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 April 13-19? BUY Yes 29¢ $168 65d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $700 66d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $340 66d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $405 68d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $695 68d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $43 68d
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 6-12? SELL Yes 9¢ $69 69d
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 April 6-12? SELL Yes 4¢ $51 69d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $35 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 1¢ $51 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 1¢ $20 70d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $30 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $522.87 · official $522.87 (match) · 161 history records