Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:46:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
70 0x70fa…35da other 179 markets active 2h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$19 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%82W / 85L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$2
sports 30% +$49
weather 15% −$4
crypto 10% −$12
politics 9% +$3
world 3% −$12
economics 1% −$10
finance 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +74.1% +57.5% 67% 67% +79.4%
≤30d 3 +74.1% +57.5% 67% 67% +79.4%
≤90d 102 -3.4% -12.6% 53% 51% -8.0%
all 167 +4.7% -5.3% 49% 48% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 48% -7.6%
10% -14.3% 46% -16.5%
15% -22.6% 45% -24.5%
20% -30.2% 41% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$19
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses82 / 85
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions12
Markets (closed)167 / 179
History coverage147d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 167 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 56¢ 44¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-22%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 56¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Over 69¢ 66¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 52¢ 34¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-35%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 30¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -76%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 16 $7 +$11 +153%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 16 $3 +$4 +146%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Apr 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Apr 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Apr 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Apr 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Apr 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,550 Week of April 6 2026? Apr 16 $5 +$6 +127%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $5 +$7 +134%
Will Powell say "War" during April press conference? Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Love Trump" or "Loves Trump" in April? Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on April 15? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 13 $26 +$10 +38%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $5 +$4 +86%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 10 $8 +$7 +90%
Clippers vs. Trail Blazers Apr 09 $9 −$9 -99%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-18? Apr 08 $9 −$9 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $5 +$6 +114%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 08 $10 +$8 +81%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $10 +$8 +83%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $12 −$3 -22%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 7? Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Hornets vs. Timberwolves Apr 06 $5 +$5 +101%
Lakers vs. Mavericks Apr 06 $10 +$11 +105%
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Apr 05 $9 −$9 -99%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Rockets vs. Warriors Apr 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Wizards vs. Nets Apr 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Islanders vs. Hurricanes Apr 05 $6 +$3 +52%
Sabres vs. Capitals Apr 05 $5 +$5 +100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $5 +$6 +126%
UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Guilherme Pat (Heavyweight, Preli Apr 05 $6 +$6 +90%
Spurs vs. Nuggets Apr 05 $7 +$7 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 04 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 04 $2 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 04 $2 −$2 -96%
UFC Fight Night: Virna Jandiroba vs. Tabatha Ricci (Women's Strawweigh Apr 04 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Ca Apr 04 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-04-05? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Timberwolves vs. 76ers Apr 04 $10 +$6 +60%
Timberwolves vs. Pistons Apr 04 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 02 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 02 $3 +$3 +107%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $9 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $18 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $4 60d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 60d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 60d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 60d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 60d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 60d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 60d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $6 60d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $6 60d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 62d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 62d
Will Powell say "War" during April press conference? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 62d
Will Trump say "Love Trump" or "Loves Trump" in April? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 62d
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on April 15? BUY Down 46¢ $1 62d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL Yes 99¢ $36 63d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 39¢ $7 64d
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el BUY Yes 56¢ $20 64d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes $0 64d
Clippers vs. Trail Blazers BUY Clippers 52¢ $3 67d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 67d
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 67d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 72¢ $26 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.18 · official $60.18 (match) · 350 history records