Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:40:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x70fa…a77e crypto 206 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (279 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$77 (+10%) realized +$79 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%86W / 119L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day278.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (279 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 205 +12.4% +1.7% 42% 40% +2.9%
≤30d 205 +12.4% +1.7% 42% 40% +2.9%
≤90d 205 +12.4% +1.7% 42% 40% +2.9%
all 205 +12.4% +1.7% 42% 40% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover278.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.7% 40% +2.9%
10% ← realistic here -8.0% 38% -6.9%
15% -16.9% 36% -15.9%
20% -25.1% 33% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$79
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses86 / 119
Open positions1
Markets (closed)205 / 206
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day278.7
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 205 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 72¢ 34¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 115 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$4 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +173%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +119%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$5 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$49 +456%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$4 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$4 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$6 +134%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$13 +228%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$5 +398%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$9 +841%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$4 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$6 +208%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $3 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $4 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $0 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $11 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.27 · official $2.92 (match) · 372 history records