Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:51:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

70
0x70fa…d7ae
other · 43 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$26 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$26 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$53
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses10 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage261d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 1 History 42 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $52 $53 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $3 −$1 -19%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $42 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 Jan 31 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $22 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 24 $41 −$16 -38%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? Nov 22 $11 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 22 $43 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $73 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $24 +$1 +5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 05 $45 $0 +0%
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic aft Oct 05 $1 $0 -12%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Rental Family win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Oct 01 $24 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 30 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $21 $0 -1%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $2 $0 -1%
Will Marco Francis win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election? Sep 28 $5 $0 +2%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 28 $22 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 28 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 27 $27 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $27 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 35% −$11
sports 18% −$16
politics 15% $0
world 11% $0
crypto 8% $0
economics 5% $0
culture 5% +$1
tech 3% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $52 23m
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 5¢ $2 5h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 5¢ $1 5h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 12h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 12h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $42 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $27 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $15 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $3 131d
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 BUY Yes 65¢ $2 199d
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 BUY Yes 65¢ $9 199d
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? SELL No 81¢ $3 199d
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? SELL No 81¢ $8 199d
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? BUY No 81¢ $11 199d
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? SELL No 77¢ $2 199d
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? SELL No 77¢ $10 199d
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? BUY No 77¢ $12 200d
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? SELL No 81¢ $11 200d
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? BUY No 81¢ $11 200d
Will Brighton win on 2025-12-03? SELL No 58¢ $11 200d
Will Brighton win on 2025-12-03? BUY No 58¢ $11 200d
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? SELL No 73¢ $11 200d
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? BUY No 73¢ $11 200d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? SELL Yes 79¢ $4 200d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? SELL Yes 79¢ $7 200d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? BUY Yes 79¢ $11 200d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -4.8% -13.9% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 4 -4.8% -13.9% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 4 -4.8% -13.9% 0% 0% -10.6%
all 42 -3.9% -13.0% 24% 0% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 0% -12.3%
10% -21.4% 0% -20.6%
15% -29.0% 0% -28.3%
20% -35.9% 0% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.60 · official $52.60 (match) · 133 history records