Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:43:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
71 0x7112…6d11 weather 880 markets active 2h ago coverage 51d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 51d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,978 (+9%) realized +$3,981 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate81%709W / 167L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day63.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$211now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 51d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$910
sports 0% +$7
other 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 +4.4% -5.5% 75% 46% -13.1%
≤30d 444 +4.3% -5.6% 82% 48% -7.9%
≤90d 876 +4.6% -5.4% 81% 59% -7.7%
all 876 +4.6% -5.4% 81% 59% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.4% 59% -7.7%
10% ← realistic here -14.4% 12% -16.5%
15% -22.7% 4% -24.6%
20% -30.3% 2% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$25 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$211
Realized+$3,981
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses709 / 167
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)876 / 880
History coverage51d ⚠
Avg bet$52
Trades / day63.0
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 876 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? No 90¢ 87¢ $90 $87 −$3 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 17? No 89¢ 93¢ $55 $58 +$3 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? No 83¢ 76¢ $37 $34 −$3 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? No 90¢ 91¢ $32 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $73 +$16 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $90 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $12 +$3 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 Jun 17 $45 +$4 +9%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 +$4 +10%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $23 +$7 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $0 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 15? Jun 17 $90 −$90 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $90 +$9 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $3 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $33 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16 Jun 16 $90 +$9 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $90 +$9 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 15? Jun 15 $53 +$6 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$5 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $44 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $90 +$9 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $89 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $90 +$9 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $34 +$13 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 15 $38 +$7 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $90 +$8 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 −$1 -9%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 15 $82 −$82 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 14? Jun 15 $71 +$8 +11%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 15 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $180 +$19 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $180 +$9 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $90 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $34 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$9 +900%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $90 −$5 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $31 +$14 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $85 +$14 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $90 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $90 −$90 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $90 −$6 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 Jun 14 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 13 $29 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $90 +$9 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $90 −$5 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $90 +$7 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? SELL No 92¢ $88 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 89¢ $55 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? BUY No 83¢ $21 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? BUY No 83¢ $17 2h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $31 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 70¢ $49 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $24 3h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $15 4h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $18 4h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 SELL No 98¢ $49 4h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $41 4h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 91¢ $54 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 91¢ $9 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 94¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $50 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $8 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $9 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $7 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $45 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $89 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $45 8h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $23 9h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 BUY No 90¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 BUY No 90¢ $4 9h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 BUY No 90¢ $4 9h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 BUY No 90¢ $4 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $211.21 · official $211.21 (match) · 3500 history records