Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:38:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
71 0x7116…18ab crypto 66 markets active 0h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$271 (-11%) realized −$264 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate40%22W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$174now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$246
7 days+$51
14 days+$51
30 days+$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$397
sports 16% +$147
other 9% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -5.7% -14.7% 42% 34% -7.1%
≤30d 53 -5.7% -14.7% 42% 34% -7.1%
≤90d 53 -5.7% -14.7% 42% 34% -7.1%
all 55 -9.1% -17.8% 40% 33% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 33% -18.9%
10% -25.6% 31% -26.7%
15% -32.8% 24% -33.8%
20% -39.4% 20% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$27 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$174
Realized−$264
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses22 / 33
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions9
Markets (closed)55 / 66
History coverage104d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 36¢ 36¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $38 $28 −$10 (-26%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $16 $19 +$3 (+21%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$22 +85%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $46 +$65 +143%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $56 +$76 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $36 +$16 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 18 $53 −$23 -43%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$74 +146%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $72 +$12 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$12 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$22 -22%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$5 +25%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 +$12 +232%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $29 +$63 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 16 $10 −$5 -47%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $11 −$2 -15%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $15 +$26 +170%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $25 +$35 +139%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 16 $40 −$39 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $26 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +63%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $66 −$65 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $26 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $79 −$54 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $78 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $53 +$17 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $79 +$35 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$19 -37%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $57 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $32 +$36 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 −$14 -88%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 −$13 -65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $51 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 100¢ $111 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 18¢ $5 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $132 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 30¢ $5 3h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $5 3h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 3h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 48¢ $41 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.23 · official $194.23 · 217 history records