Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:12:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x7116…d144 sports 235 markets active 9h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$138 (-6%) realized −$138 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%69W / 166L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day28.1pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$64
14 days−$99
30 days−$274
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$180
other 19% −$81
politics 2% −$4
crypto 1% −$7
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-31.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -9.9% -18.5% 41% 38% -14.7%
≤30d 235 -23.8% -31.1% 29% 28% -18.8%
≤90d 235 -23.8% -31.1% 29% 28% -18.8%
all 235 -23.8% -31.1% 29% 28% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.1% 28% -18.8%
10% ← realistic here -37.7% 27% -26.5%
15% -43.7% 23% -33.6%
20% -49.2% 19% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$138
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses69 / 166
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions0
Markets (closed)235 / 235
History coverage21d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day28.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 235 Trades
no open positions (99 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $11 +$1 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $7 +$4 +62%
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $5 −$2 -48%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$5 +48%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $19 −$14 -73%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 +$6 +39%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen Jun 18 $8 $0 +3%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $6 +$12 +194%
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Carole Monnet Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $1 +$4 +438%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $5 +$8 +158%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire Jun 18 $2 +$8 +382%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$8 -82%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $38 −$23 -62%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$10 +100%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 17 $21 +$20 +98%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$6 +118%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$22 +72%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$10 +48%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $4 −$3 -97%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $5 −$3 -72%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $4 +$3 +68%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 16 $2 +$2 +96%
Asuncion 2: Hernando Escurra vs Hernan Casanova Jun 16 $2 −$2 -78%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 +$9 +60%
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $3 +$1 +35%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $4 +$6 +158%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Daniel Michalski Jun 16 $5 −$5 -89%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $10 −$9 -85%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 $0 -7%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $6 −$5 -78%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +101%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -86%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$3 +77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $12 8h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 8h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $11 11h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $7 19h
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 7¢ $3 20h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 16¢ $3 22h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics SELL Los Angeles Angels 2¢ $3 31h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 4¢ $5 32h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 32h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 33h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 73¢ $15 33h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 34h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 25¢ $9 34h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever SELL Indiana Fever 24¢ $5 34h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 49¢ $10 35h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 38h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $7 38h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 54¢ $7 39h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 65¢ $8 39h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen SELL Billy Harris 12¢ $8 40h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen BUY Billy Harris 11¢ $8 40h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 58¢ $18 41h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 41h
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Carole Monnet BUY Carole Monnet 14¢ $5 42h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka SELL Rinky Hijikata 28¢ $6 42h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Rinky Hijikata 5¢ $1 42h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina SELL Alexandra Eala 43¢ $13 42h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Alexandra Eala 16¢ $5 43h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 4¢ $2 44h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 9¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 601 history records