Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
71 0x711b…bcec sports 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$7,092 (+4%) realized +$15,150 · open −$8,058
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate52%53W / 49L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$1,858per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$16,976now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 94d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 86% −$1,953
sports 6% +$775
other 5% −$126
crypto 4% +$395
weather 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -11.1% -19.6% 83% 17% -9.3%
≤30d 49 -7.5% -16.3% 49% 27% -6.0%
≤90d 96 -11.1% -19.6% 50% 32% -5.7%
all 102 -10.7% -19.2% 52% 33% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 33% -5.7%
10% -26.9% 26% -14.7%
15% -34.0% 24% -22.9%
20% -40.5% 18% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$177 vs −$46 · ×3.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.16 per $1 lost it wins $4.16
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$16,976
Realized+$15,150
Unrealized−$8,058
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses53 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions3
Markets (closed)102 / 106
History coverage94d
Avg bet$1,858
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 12¢ $22,636 $14,619 −$8,017 (-35%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 91¢ 86¢ $2,000 $1,885 −$115 (-6%)
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? Yes 61¢ 72¢ $398 $472 +$74 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1,000 −$999 -100%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $5,006 +$203 +4%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,000 +$64 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $72,677 +$726 +1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,005 +$189 +19%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 11 $1,001 +$30 +3%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $2,001 +$20 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $22,800 +$732 +3%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $48 +$15 +31%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $51 −$50 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $42 −$42 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $51 +$39 +76%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $42,281 +$5,185 +12%
Will Vinícius Júnior record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champ May 31 $501 +$17 +3%
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA May 31 $500 +$10 +2%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $10 −$10 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $5 −$5 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $1,550 +$153 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 27? May 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C or higher on May 27? May 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 25? May 26 $0 +$4 +1490%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO5) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 24 $40 +$23 +56%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 25? May 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on May 25? May 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 25? May 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 54-55°F on May 25? May 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on May 25? May 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on May 25? May 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 25? May 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 25? May 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 25? May 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 25? May 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 25? May 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $51 −$50 -99%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $10 +$7 +65%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United? May 22 $700 +$4 +1%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $100 +$55 +55%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $42 −$41 -99%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner May 19 $30 +$11 +36%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 19 $10 +$5 +48%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner May 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Serie A se May 19 $170 +$9 +5%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $162 −$118 -73%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Prem May 18 $200 +$28 +14%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B May 18 $10 +$5 +50%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PlayTime (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B May 18 $10 +$14 +139%
Arne Slot out as Liverpool Head Coach by May 31, 2026? May 18 $301 −$300 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $20 +$10 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $1 43m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $21,279 2h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $1,357 2h
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,000 33h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 91¢ $2,006 40h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY 61¢ $101 41h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $1,064 41h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,000 42h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $20,250 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $6 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $100 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $2,730 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $3,584 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $2,205 3d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 87¢ $2,205 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $972 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $23,000 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $23,233 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $23,000 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 84¢ $1,005 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline BUY Spurs 97¢ $1,001 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 99¢ $1,000 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 99¢ $1,000 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $23,500 9d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 90¢ $2,301 9d
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 99¢ $2,205 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $23,500 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23,532 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 99¢ $63 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 75¢ $48 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,976.07 · official $16,915.67 (match) · 208 history records