Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:45:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

71 0x7122…8291 other 10 markets active 3d ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$123 (-43%) realized −$122 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -81% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -84% what you keep after slip

Net edge-84%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$29per market

Trades / day3.6pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit10%portable

Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-83.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-81.3%	-83.0%	0%	0%	-86.4%
≤30d	6	-81.3%	-83.0%	0%	0%	-86.4%
≤90d	6	-81.3%	-83.0%	0%	0%	-86.4%
all	6	-81.3%	-83.0%	0%	0%	-86.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-83.0%	0%	-86.4%
10%	-84.7%	0%	-87.7%
15%	-86.1%	0%	-88.9%
20%	-87.5%	0%	-90.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -85% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -81% · $-wt -85% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$21 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$129

Realized−$122

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 6

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions4

Markets (closed)6 / 10

History coverage4d

Avg bet$29

Trades / day3.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	18¢	$50	$57	+$7 (+15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$30	$29	−$1 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	13¢	$30	$24	−$6 (-20%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$20	$18	−$2 (-8%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$21	−$11	-55%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 14	$21	−$2	-9%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Jun 10	$20	−$20	-98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 10	$51	−$50	-97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 10	$21	−$20	-97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 10	$21	−$20	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	3¢	$7	2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	2¢	$1	2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	4¢	$19	2d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$20	6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	11¢	$21	6d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	4¢	$21	6d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	6¢	$21	6d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	3¢	$21	6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	2¢	$21	6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$31	6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$21	6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$51	6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$31	6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	11¢	$31	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.01 · official $129.01 (match) · 21 history records