Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:03:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x7125…86d4 politics 101 markets active 2h ago coverage 380d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate9%9W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% −$8
other 34% −$6
sports 14% −$1
culture 7% −$1
crypto 4% $0
economics 3% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 40% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 43% 0% -9.6%
all 100 -3.8% -12.9% 9% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 1% -9.7%
10% -21.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

380d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses9 / 91
Open positions1
Markets (closed)100 / 101
History coverage380d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 27 $78 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $158 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $76 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $7 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 30 $73 $0 +0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $75 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $247 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 26 $74 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 10? Feb 11 $76 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 01 $78 $0 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 29 $77 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 27 $76 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 25 $79 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 23 $243 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 22 $78 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Unbelievable" or "Fantastic" or "Incredible" 10+ times Jan 19 $75 $0 +0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 18 $79 $0 -1%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 17 $80 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $75 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 14 $77 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 11 $76 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 08 $79 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 07 $158 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 05 $1 $0 -20%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 02 $82 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 31 $77 $0 +0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 29 $77 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Dec 26 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 25 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 23 $79 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 20 $80 $0 +0%
Will José Cardoso win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Dec 18 $78 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 16 $79 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 14 $78 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 12 $80 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 10 $80 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 08 $63 $0 -0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 07 $2 −$1 -37%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 06 $79 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 02 $79 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 30 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 29 $162 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 27 $79 $0 -0%
Will Espanyol win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 20 $78 $0 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 18 $81 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 16 $79 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 12 $80 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 12 $2 $0 -27%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 10 $1 $0 -25%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 09 $80 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 1h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $78 1h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $78 15d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $79 21d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $79 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 100¢ $76 26d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 26d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 29d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 31d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $73 33d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 33d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 35d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $75 35d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $75 36d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $76 48d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $76 112d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $74 121d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $74 130d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 10? BUY No 100¢ $76 137d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $78 146d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $78 147d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $77 149d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $77 150d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $76 151d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $76 152d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $78 153d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $79 153d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $77 154d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $78 155d
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $78 158d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.48 · official $2.48 (match) · 454 history records