Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:28:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x7126…202e sports 507 markets active 10h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$48 (-1%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate56%285W / 222L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$71
14 days−$49
30 days−$237
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$26
other 10% −$77
crypto 0% −$2
world 0% −$11
politics 0% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -11.6% -20.0% 39% 32% -26.5%
≤30d 231 -12.3% -20.7% 46% 39% -18.4%
≤90d 506 -3.8% -13.0% 56% 48% -11.9%
all 507 -3.7% -12.9% 56% 48% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 48% -11.9%
10% -21.2% 34% -20.3%
15% -28.8% 21% -28.0%
20% -35.8% 14% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses285 / 222
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions0
Markets (closed)507 / 507
History coverage166d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 507 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $4 $0 -4%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $8 −$2 -22%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $23 −$10 -44%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $4 −$2 -53%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2 +$7 +360%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $6 +$4 +64%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $7 +$1 +7%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$1 -18%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $15 −$4 -28%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $10 +$5 +46%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$2 +24%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -66%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $13 +$2 +17%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +11%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $22 −$6 -26%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$2 -45%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $10 −$9 -91%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $14 +$1 +9%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $12 +$11 +94%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $13 −$8 -63%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $13 +$1 +7%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $4 +$1 +17%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $10 +$3 +26%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 −$3 -15%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -18%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $5 $0 -6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +23%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $1 $0 -25%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 11 $2 $0 -1%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $14 −$12 -86%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $5 +$3 +52%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $10 +$2 +21%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $2 −$1 -70%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 15.5 Jun 10 $3 +$1 +40%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $3 −$1 -36%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $1 $0 +16%
Map Handicap: GE (-1.5) vs FULL SENSE (+1.5) Jun 09 $10 +$4 +38%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $15 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 62¢ $4 10h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $1 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $3 11h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 38h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 38h
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 60¢ $9 45h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 49¢ $13 45h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $2 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 46h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 28¢ $2 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 47h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $2 2d
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 67¢ $1 2d
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 78¢ $1 2d
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 68¢ $1 2d
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $2 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $9 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $2 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $1 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $10 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 100¢ $10 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $6 2d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 Esports 55¢ $1 2d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 Esports 42¢ $2 2d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 Esports 54¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1468 history records