Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:24:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x7129…3251 crypto 683 markets active 5d ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$852 (-0%) realized −$852 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate87%592W / 91L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$593per market
Trades / day34.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$295
14 days−$129
30 days−$1,284
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,193
weather 0% −$75
tech 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -17.3% -25.1% 53% 44% -23.1%
≤30d 683 -2.5% -11.8% 87% 30% -9.8%
≤90d 683 -2.5% -11.8% 87% 30% -9.8%
all 683 -2.5% -11.8% 87% 30% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 30% -9.8%
10% -20.2% 15% -18.4%
15% ← realistic here -27.9% 5% -26.3%
20% -35.0% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$1,001) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$84 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$852
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses592 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)683 / 683
History coverage21d
Avg bet$593
Trades / day34.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 683 Trades
no open positions (86 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 12 $7 −$7 -96%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$9 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$19 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$2 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $17 −$13 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$7 -74%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$3 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 12? Jun 11 $37 −$13 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $30 −$9 -30%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +134%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$21 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $50 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$18 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on BUY Yes 3¢ $5 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 14¢ $10 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on BUY Yes 3¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $51 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $51 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1321 history records