Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:22:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
71 0x7129…4517 sports 1014 markets active 2h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$738 (+2%) realized +$737 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%443W / 570L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$589est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$241
7 days+$708
14 days+$596
30 days−$401
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$219
other 3% +$155
world 0% +$13
crypto 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +38.5% +25.3% 72% 47% +16.2%
≤30d 166 -2.6% -11.9% 43% 36% -13.3%
≤90d 565 +0.6% -9.0% 39% 36% -10.5%
all 1013 +3.4% -6.4% 44% 40% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 40% -8.7%
10% -15.4% 36% -17.4%
15% -23.5% 34% -25.4%
20% -31.0% 31% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$39 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$737
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses443 / 570
Est. fees paid−$589
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1013 / 1014
History coverage238d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1013 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs SAW (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs SAW 48¢ 50¢ $41 $42 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $50 +$8 +16%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $100 +$5 +5%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $50 +$9 +17%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $100 +$5 +5%
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Esport BERG (BO3) - DACH CS Masters Pla Jun 27 $95 +$19 +20%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P Jun 27 $31 +$246 +788%
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series Jun 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 27 $32 −$31 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $75 +$5 +6%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $75 +$5 +7%
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs Endless Journey (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 26 $30 +$11 +38%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 26 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Betclic Apogee Esports (B Jun 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 26 $43 −$43 -100%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - Super Dracu Jun 26 $60 −$60 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra Jun 26 $61 −$61 -100%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain Female vs MIBR fe (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch Jun 26 $32 +$48 +152%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 +$52 +102%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $75 +$4 +6%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 25 $60 +$140 +233%
Counter-Strike: DEPO vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament Jun 25 $32 +$48 +150%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $50 +$130 +257%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $55 +$5 +10%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $53 +$2 +4%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $51 +$169 +335%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $54 +$6 +12%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 24 $52 +$87 +169%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 24 $32 +$53 +165%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super Dr Jun 24 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 +$8 +16%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 +$2 +4%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - DraculaN Group Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - DraculaN Gro Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - DraculaN Jun 23 $26 +$54 +206%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$9 +17%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 22 $31 +$39 +124%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $103 +$13 +13%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$5 +11%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$2 +4%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 21 $52 −$52 -100%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close Jun 21 $26 +$49 +190%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $51 +$69 +134%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 20 $51 +$84 +163%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff Jun 19 $31 +$46 +150%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs SAW (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series P BUY SAW 48¢ $41 1h
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series BUY Vexa 40¢ $40 20h
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Esport BERG (BO3) - DACH CS Masters Pla BUY BIG Academy 83¢ $5 21h
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Esport BERG (BO3) - DACH CS Masters Pla BUY BIG Academy 83¢ $6 21h
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Esport BERG (BO3) - DACH CS Masters Pla BUY BIG Academy 83¢ $6 21h
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Esport BERG (BO3) - DACH CS Masters Pla BUY BIG Academy 83¢ $28 21h
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Esport BERG (BO3) - DACH CS Masters Pla BUY BIG Academy 83¢ $8 21h
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Esport BERG (BO3) - DACH CS Masters Pla BUY BIG Academy 83¢ $42 21h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P BUY roamsfiest 11¢ $30 26h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P BUY roamsfiest 10¢ $1 26h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY WBT 35¢ $32 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 27h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 95¢ $100 27h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 27h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 95¢ $100 27h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 94¢ $75 46h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 93¢ $75 47h
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs Endless Journey (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY Endless Journey 72¢ $30 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 96¢ $25 2d
Counter-Strike: Clutchain Female vs MIBR fe (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch BUY MIBR fe 39¢ $32 2d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Sashi Esport 37¢ $61 2d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - Super Dracu BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 43¢ $31 2d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - Super Dracu BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 43¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - Super Dracu BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 43¢ $28 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $75 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $51 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $75 2d
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 41¢ $31 2d
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Betclic Apogee Esports (B BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 40¢ $8 3d
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Betclic Apogee Esports (B BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 40¢ $8 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.08 · official $44.62 · 3050 history records