Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:35:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x712e…a781 crypto 573 markets active 0h ago coverage 93d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 93d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$49 (+0%) realized +$46 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate54%304W / 262L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day29.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$207
7 days+$303
14 days+$253
30 days+$273
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$159
other 5% +$68
sports 2% −$43
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 165 -9.4% -18.0% 55% 44% -4.6%
≤30d 255 -4.7% -13.7% 56% 46% -5.8%
≤90d 502 -3.0% -12.2% 54% 38% -7.7%
all 566 -3.5% -12.7% 54% 36% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 36% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 28% -16.9%
15% -28.7% 22% -24.9%
20% -35.7% 16% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized+$46
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses304 / 262
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)566 / 573
History coverage93d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day29.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 566 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 48¢ $54 $50 −$4 (-7%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 42¢ 55¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+30%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) Javier Reyes 62¢ 68¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 27 $112 +$83 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 27 $83 −$73 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 27 $57 −$11 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 27 $36 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 27 $97 −$37 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 27 $226 +$15 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 27 $159 +$126 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 27 $134 +$134 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 27 $192 +$18 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 27 $36 +$20 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $57 −$17 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 27 $16 −$4 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 27 $96 +$24 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 27 $52 +$22 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 27 $30 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 27 $179 +$54 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 27 $119 −$119 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 27 $61 +$40 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 27 $83 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 27 $146 +$25 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 27 $252 +$41 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $127 +$54 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 27 $57 +$83 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 27 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 27 $158 −$158 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 27 $219 +$87 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 27 $151 +$12 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 27 $67 −$65 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 27 $16 +$23 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$32 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 27 $86 +$18 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 27 $42 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 27 $71 +$25 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 27 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 27 $107 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 27 $42 +$29 +68%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $6 +$3 +50%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $9 +$7 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$13 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 26 $77 +$59 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 26 $74 −$72 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $21 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $40 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $21 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $21 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $195 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $21 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $21 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $10 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $21 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $21 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $21 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $21 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $16 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $45 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $21 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $21 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $39 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $15 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $21 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $42 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $15 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $18 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $21 28m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.93 · official $160.94 (match) · 3500 history records