Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:13:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
71 0x712f…0e7a crypto 920 markets active 10h ago coverage 106d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 106d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,413 (-15%) realized −$4,413 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate81%748W / 171L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 106d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$157
other 24% −$315
sports 4% −$290
politics 0% −$5
economics 0% −$4
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -0.2% -9.7% 85% 20% -8.7%
≤30d 258 -7.4% -16.2% 79% 15% -11.4%
≤90d 283 -9.1% -17.8% 78% 14% -12.3%
all 919 -5.0% -14.1% 81% 21% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 21% -11.8%
10% -22.3% 10% -20.3%
15% -29.8% 6% -28.0%
20% -36.7% 4% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$16 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,413
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses748 / 171
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)919 / 920
History coverage106d ⚠
Avg bet$31
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 919 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 25 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 24 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 24 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 24 $120 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 24 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $120 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $85 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 24 $75 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 24 $51 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 24 $141 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 24 $139 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 24 $75 +$4 +5%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $51 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $33 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $33 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 23 $33 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 23 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $49 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 23 $39 +$10 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $38 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $35 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 23 $33 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 23 $67 −$34 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 23 $65 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 23 $63 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 23 $63 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $63 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 23 $46 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 23 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$14 +55%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $43 +$12 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $101 +$24 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 21 $18 +$13 +69%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $41 +$39 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $50 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $120 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $50 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $120 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $35 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $51 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $141 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $139 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $75 40h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 1¢ $1 40h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $49 40h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $36 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $33 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $33 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $10 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $33 47h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $49 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $39 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $38 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $35 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records