Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:44:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
71 0x712f…9fe6 other 169 markets active 2h ago coverage 607d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,359 (+1%) realized +$39,857 · open −$36,498
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%100W / 66L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,817per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$120,105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 607d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$36,491
other 39% +$3,838
culture 10% +$4,280
weather 6% −$5,197
world 4% −$181
sports 0% +$690
crypto 0% −$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -38.7% -44.5% 50% 50% +6.7%
≤30d 2 -38.7% -44.5% 50% 50% +6.7%
≤90d 2 -38.7% -44.5% 50% 50% +6.7%
all 166 -2.9% -12.2% 60% 40% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 40% -7.9%
10% -20.6% 27% -16.7%
15% -28.3% 13% -24.8%
20% -35.3% 9% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% too few recent
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$1,494) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$305 vs −$418 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

607d coverage
Net worth$120,105
Realized+$39,857
Unrealized−$36,498
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses100 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)166 / 169
History coverage607d
Avg bet$1,817
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 80¢ $60,000 $96,540 +$36,540 (+61%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 20¢ $60,000 $23,460 −$36,540 (-61%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 100¢ $60 $105 +$45 (+75%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 62¢ 4¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $122 −$122 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $3,000 +$680 +23%
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross less than $140m opening weekend? May 28 $9,904 +$2,485 +25%
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $140-150m opening weekend? May 28 $1,376 +$1,658 +120%
Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross between $60-65m May 27 $693 +$1,385 +200%
Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross less than $60m May 27 $160 −$160 -100%
Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross between $65-70m May 27 $580 −$580 -100%
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $150-160m opening weekend? May 25 $858 −$472 -55%
Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross more than $75m May 24 $2,158 +$815 +38%
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross more than $170m opening weekend? May 24 $848 +$108 +13%
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $160-170m opening weekend? May 23 $193 −$2 -1%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 23 $14 +$86 +626%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 May 21 $99 +$62 +62%
Will 'Final Destination: Bloodlines' gross between $48-52m opening wee May 19 $1,539 +$705 +46%
Will 'Final Destination: Bloodlines' gross between $44-48m opening wee May 18 $231 −$31 -13%
Will 'Final Destination: Bloodlines' gross more than $52m opening week May 16 $1,084 +$70 +6%
Will 'Final Destination: Bloodlines' gross less than $40m opening week May 15 $746 +$212 +28%
Will 'Thunderbolts' gross between $77m and 82m on opening weekend? May 05 $300 −$37 -12%
Will 'Thunderbolts' gross more than $82m on opening weekend? May 03 $774 +$1,002 +129%
Will 'The Accountant 2' gross less than $25m on opening weekend? Apr 29 $632 +$223 +35%
Will 'The Accountant 2' gross between $25-28m on opening weekend? Apr 29 $34 −$34 -100%
Will 'Star Wars III' gross more than $25m on opening weekend? Apr 29 $538 −$338 -63%
Will 'Star Wars III' gross between $22-25m on opening weekend? Apr 29 $377 −$377 -100%
Will 'Sinners' gross between $49m and $54m on opening weekend? Apr 23 $365 +$135 +37%
Will 'Sinners' gross less than $44m on opening weekend? Apr 20 $1,613 −$717 -44%
Will 'The Amateur' make between $16-19m on its domestic opening weeken Apr 16 $135 −$135 -100%
Will 'King of Kings' make between $15-18m on its domestic opening week Apr 16 $80 −$77 -96%
Will 'The Amateur' make less than $13m on its domestic opening weekend Apr 16 $94 −$93 -99%
Will 'King of Kings' make more than $24m on its domestic opening weeke Apr 15 $655 −$307 -47%
Will 'Minecraft' gross more than 120m on opening weekend? Apr 08 $2,381 +$508 +21%
Will 'Minecraft' gross more than 70m on opening weekend? Apr 03 $1,767 +$500 +28%
Will 'A Working Man' gross between 11-14m on opening weekend? Mar 30 $1,809 +$89 +5%
Will 'Minecraft' gross between 52-58m on opening weekend? Mar 28 $1,656 +$166 +10%
Will 'Alto Knights' gross less than 3m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $867 +$218 +25%
Will 'Snow White' gross between 44-49m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $3,298 −$3,298 -100%
Will 'Magazine Dreams' gross between 1-2m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $47 −$40 -85%
Will 'Alto Knights' gross between 3-5m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $552 −$378 -68%
Will 'Snow White' gross between 39-44m on opening weekend? Mar 22 $1,100 −$780 -71%
Will 'Magazine Dreams' gross less than 1m on opening weekend? Mar 22 $465 +$5 +1%
Will 'Snow White' gross between 34-39m on opening weekend? Mar 22 $104 −$5 -5%
U.S. Government funding lapse on March 15? Mar 19 $3,884 +$16 +0%
Will 'Novocaine' gross less than 7m on opening weekend? Mar 18 $1,819 +$202 +11%
Will 'Black Bag' gross between 5-7m on opening weekend? Mar 17 $512 −$508 -99%
Will 'Novocaine' gross between 9-11m on opening weekend? Mar 14 $1,272 +$403 +32%
Will 'Novocaine' gross more than 11m on opening weekend? Mar 13 $16 −$2 -15%
Will 'Mickey 17' gross between 16-20m on its opening weekend? Mar 11 $2,698 +$47 +2%
Will 'Mickey 17' gross between 20-24m on its opening weekend? Mar 09 $140 −$131 -94%
Will 'Last Breath' gross more than 9m on its opening weekend? Mar 04 $4,281 +$464 +11%
Will 'Last Breath' between 3-6m on its opening weekend? Mar 03 $1,901 −$1,898 -100%
Will 'Last Breath' between 6-9m on its opening weekend? Mar 02 $1,494 −$1,491 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $61 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $3,303 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $368 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $9 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $947 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $3 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $201 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $2 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $90 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $1,757 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $122 5d
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $150-160m opening weekend? SELL Yes 14¢ $193 391d
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $150-160m opening weekend? BUY Yes 13¢ $179 391d
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $140-150m opening weekend? BUY Yes 79¢ $164 391d
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $140-150m opening weekend? BUY Yes 80¢ $579 391d
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross less than $140m opening weekend? SELL No 91¢ $922 391d
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross less than $140m opening weekend? BUY No 86¢ $811 391d
Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross more than $75m SELL No 99¢ $811 391d
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross less than $140m opening weekend? BUY No 69¢ $1,436 392d
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross more than $170m opening weekend? SELL No 99¢ $450 392d
Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross more than $75m SELL No 97¢ $983 392d
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross less than $140m opening weekend? BUY No 69¢ $1,176 392d
Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross more than $75m SELL No 97¢ $1,180 392d
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross less than $140m opening weekend? BUY No 66¢ $1,227 392d
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $150-160m opening weekend? SELL Yes 9¢ $192 392d
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $150-160m opening weekend? BUY Yes 36¢ $180 393d
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $140-150m opening weekend? BUY Yes 36¢ $167 393d
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $150-160m opening weekend? BUY Yes 36¢ $360 393d
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $140-150m opening weekend? BUY Yes 33¢ $395 393d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120,105.22 · official $120,105.23 (match) · 1313 history records