Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:13:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

71
0x7130…5387
weather · 306 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$36 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$139 · open +$41
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$280
Realized−$139
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses143 / 150
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions13
Markets (closed)293 / 306
History coverage122d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 13 History 293 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$103
14 days−$156
30 days−$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 41¢ 56¢ $43 $58 +$16 (+36%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 74¢ 82¢ $44 $48 +$4 (+10%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No 70¢ 80¢ $32 $36 +$4 (+14%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $20 $32 +$12 (+58%)
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 42¢ 48¢ $19 $21 +$2 (+12%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? No 93¢ 98¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+5%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 25¢ 15¢ $23 $14 −$9 (-40%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No 80¢ 86¢ $8 $8 +$1 (+8%)
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 2¢ 17¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+596%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 55¢ 64¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 3¢ 10¢ $0 $2 +$1 (+304%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $43 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $16 −$3 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $42 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +6%
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $11 +$13 +114%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 +$1 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $33 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $44 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $17 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $13 +$2 +17%
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in June? Jun 13 $7 $0 -6%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 13 $2 +$2 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $24 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $39 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? Jun 13 $37 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $49 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $47 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $47 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 13 $41 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $26 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $36 $0 -0%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? Jun 12 $35 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Trump announce Chris Stewart as the next Director of National Int Jun 11 $7 $0 +2%
Will Trump announce no pick for the next Director of National Intellig Jun 11 $6 $0 -1%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $119 −$119 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 11? Jun 10 $19 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 10? Jun 10 $32 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $42 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $62 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $48 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 10? Jun 10 $41 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $18 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 62% +$86
sports 11% −$169
other 10% −$79
world 7% +$102
crypto 7% −$44
politics 2% +$2
finance 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 50m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 53m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 58m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 59m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $34 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $43 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $10 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 4h
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 4h
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? BUY Yes 95¢ $15 4h
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? BUY Yes 95¢ $15 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 17¢ $8 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $43 9h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $42 9h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $5 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 55¢ $5 16h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $15 17h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $5 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 +0.9% -8.7% 46% 10% -13.5%
≤30d 257 +1.7% -8.0% 51% 15% -10.8%
≤90d 283 -0.7% -10.1% 49% 16% -11.2%
all 293 -0.9% -10.4% 49% 16% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 16% -11.6%
10% -18.9% 12% -20.0%
15% -26.8% 9% -27.8%
20% -33.9% 7% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $280.21 · official $280.22 (match) · 1557 history records