Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:53:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
71 0x7131…1fad other 8 markets active 14h ago coverage 94d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-29%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$11
world 17% $0
tech 15% $0
crypto 12% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-35.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -25.5% -32.6% 60% 60% -38.9%
≤30d 5 -25.5% -32.6% 60% 60% -38.9%
≤90d 5 -25.5% -32.6% 60% 60% -38.9%
all 8 -28.7% -35.5% 50% 38% -37.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.5% 38% -37.0%
10% -41.7% 12% -43.0%
15% -47.3% 12% -48.5%
20% -52.5% 0% -53.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage94d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +18%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Mar 17 $9 $0 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 15 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 14h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $7 92d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $8 92d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $9 93d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? SELL No 96¢ $10 94d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 96¢ $10 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records