Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:27:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x7131…b3a6 weather 429 markets active 0h ago coverage 406d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4,930 (-2%) realized −$4,435 · open −$495
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate81%332W / 76L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$470per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$16,873now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days+$184
14 days+$497
30 days+$3,248
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 55% −$812
politics 28% −$239
other 11% −$5,080
world 3% +$399
sports 1% −$187
tech 1% +$291
culture 1% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 141 -1.9% -11.2% 94% 4% -9.2%
≤30d 303 -1.5% -10.9% 89% 10% -6.8%
≤90d 396 -4.2% -13.3% 83% 16% -10.2%
all 408 -5.4% -14.4% 81% 16% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 16% -11.8%
10% -22.6% 8% -20.2%
15% -30.0% 4% -27.9%
20% -36.9% 2% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$560) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$225 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

406d coverage
Net worth$16,873
Realized−$4,435
Unrealized−$495
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses332 / 76
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions21
Markets (closed)408 / 429
History coverage406d
Avg bet$470
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 408 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 45¢ 50¢ $6,497 $7,301 +$804 (+12%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 86¢ 88¢ $2,666 $2,712 +$46 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $863 $864 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 18? No 98¢ 99¢ $848 $857 +$9 (+1%)
Will Mark Smith be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? Yes 65¢ 69¢ $785 $833 +$48 (+6%)
Will Michele Tafoya be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota? Yes 79¢ 92¢ $548 $638 +$90 (+16%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 62¢ 57¢ $533 $490 −$43 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $478 $477 −$1 (-0%)
Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? Yes 75¢ 80¢ $417 $443 +$26 (+6%)
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? Yes 72¢ 38¢ $835 $443 −$392 (-47%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $358 $358 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $353 $353 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $235 $240 +$5 (+2%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $162 $162 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jamie Davis Jr. be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes 78¢ 97¢ $118 $146 +$28 (+24%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $143 $144 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $137 $140 +$2 (+2%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 18? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $129 $133 +$3 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $90 $91 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 18? No 97¢ 96¢ $49 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Will Dusty Johnson win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election? Yes 56¢ 0¢ $1,125 $1 −$1,124 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $995 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $601 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $368 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $478 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $188 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $779 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1,890 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $831 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1,020 +$10 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $130 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $161 +$7 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $399 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $405 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $46 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $148 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $918 +$4 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $388 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $575 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $95 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $243 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $189 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1,081 +$3 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $257 −$15 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $143 −$143 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $175 −$11 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $121 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $488 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $58 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $232 +$9 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? Jun 16 $246 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $198 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $309 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $210 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $135 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $106 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $285 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $66 +$16 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $61 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $199 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $85 +$7 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $349 +$7 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $77 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $202 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $184 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +54%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $214 +$12 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $209 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,003 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $64 +$6 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $49 2m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $353 19m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $90 32m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $68 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $863 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $848 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 96¢ $167 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $478 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $143 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $138 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $257 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $162 11h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $150 11h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $101 11h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 18? BUY Yes 97¢ $129 11h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $300 11h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $932 12h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $633 13h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 13h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $17 13h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 13h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $125 13h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 13h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $198 13h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $903 13h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $779 13h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $601 13h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $188 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,873.35 · official $16,885.22 (match) · 1686 history records