Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:25:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
71 0x7132…da36 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 246d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$34 (-20%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$2
world 14% −$9
crypto 9% −$14
tech 7% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-38.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 7 -32.4% -38.8% 29% 29% -53.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.8% 29% -53.9%
10% -44.7% 29% -58.4%
15% -50.0% 29% -62.4%
20% -54.9% 14% -66.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage246d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Feb 03 $15 −$14 -98%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 03 $10 +$5 +47%
Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch? Jan 28 $6 +$14 +226%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 11 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026? Jan 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of December 29 above $455? Jan 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? Oct 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $15 145d
Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch? SELL No 62¢ $20 151d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $10 168d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 168d
Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch? BUY No 19¢ $6 168d
US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 168d
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of December 29 above $455? BUY Yes 62¢ $12 177d
Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? BUY Yes 69¢ $11 246d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.50 · official $99.50 (match) · 10 history records