Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:45:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x7134…b81e weather 245 markets active 0h ago coverage 199d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%108W / 137L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 59% $0
other 13% −$13
crypto 13% $0
culture 4% $0
politics 4% $0
sports 3% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
economics 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 75% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 52 -0.0% -9.5% 31% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 243 -0.4% -9.9% 44% 0% -9.9%
all 245 -0.4% -9.9% 44% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

199d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses108 / 137
Open positions0
Markets (closed)245 / 245
History coverage199d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 245 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 30°C on June 27? Jun 26 $25 $0 -0%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in May? Jun 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on June 9? Jun 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 98°F or higher on June 8? Jun 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 7? Jun 07 $20 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 06 $16 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 31°C on June 5? Jun 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on June 4? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on June 3? Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 4? Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 3? Jun 03 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ju Jun 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Julie Stauch win the 2026 Iowa Governor Democratic primary electi Jun 03 $20 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 2? Jun 02 $11 $0 -0%
Will Phil Foden be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squad Jun 02 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 2? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Lindsey Horvath finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Jun 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Adam Miller win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 02 $20 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 1? Jun 01 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 1? Jun 01 $19 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 1? Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $4.50 (HIGH) by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $8 $0 -0%
Will Dacian Cioloș be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 31 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on May 31? May 31 $15 $0 +0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $18 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Canadia May 31 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 39°C on May 31? May 31 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $3.50 (LOW) by May 31, 2026? May 31 $19 $0 -0%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by May 31? May 30 $11 $0 -0%
Will Vitinha have the most goal contributions in the 2025-26 Champions May 30 $11 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 30 $8 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 30? May 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by May 31? May 30 $11 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 30 $18 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on May 30? May 30 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C or higher on May May 29 $20 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 29? May 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C or below on May 30? May 29 $16 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 29? May 29 $6 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 29? May 29 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 29? May 29 $19 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on May 29? May 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 28? May 28 $9 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 29? May 28 $18 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on May 28? May 28 $16 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 48-49°F on Ma May 28 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C or higher on May May 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the May Meeting? May 28 $28 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 30°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $25 9m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 30°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in May? BUY No 100¢ $9 17d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $11 17d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 98°F or higher on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $14 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 7? SELL No 100¢ $20 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $20 20d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $16 20d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $16 20d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 31°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $9 21d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $5 22d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $20 23d
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $15 23d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $0 23d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $3 23d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $9 23d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $5 23d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $11 23d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $0 23d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $12 23d
Will Julie Stauch win the 2026 Iowa Governor Democratic primary electi SELL No 100¢ $20 23d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $5 23d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 2? SELL No 100¢ $11 23d
Will Phil Foden be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squad SELL No 100¢ $15 24d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $11 24d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 2? SELL No 100¢ $20 24d
Will Lindsey Horvath finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los SELL No 100¢ $18 24d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $20 24d
Will Adam Miller win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 100¢ $20 24d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $11 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 556 history records