Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:27:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
71 0x7134…53d6 other 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge! high turnover
Total PnL +$715 (+12%) realized +$716 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$671per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$97est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$681
other 45% +$1,809
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +31.3% +18.8% 83% 67% +28.5%
≤30d 6 +31.3% +18.8% 83% 67% +28.5%
≤90d 6 +31.3% +18.8% 83% 67% +28.5%
all 6 +31.3% +18.8% 83% 67% +28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +18.8% 67% +28.5%
10% ← realistic here +7.4% 50% +16.2%
15% -3.0% 33% +5.0%
20% -12.5% 33% -5.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$499 vs −$5 · ×103.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×519.81 per $1 lost it wins $519.81
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$716
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Est. fees paid−$97
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 9
History coverage4d
Avg bet$671
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand to score first vs. Egypt? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $635 +$573 +90%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $623 +$201 +32%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $819 +$1,127 +138%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $2,595 +$481 +18%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,254 +$114 +9%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 42¢ $0 4m
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $824 6m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 42¢ $1,207 8m
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $204 9m
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 9m
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $204 13m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 13m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 14m
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 19m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 19m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 20m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 22¢ $205 21m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 38m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 39m
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 39m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 49¢ $1,021 39m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 47¢ $925 44m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score AND Will New Zealand win on BUY 8¢ $51 1h
New Zealand to score first vs. Egypt? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $256 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 93¢ $2,396 2h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $902 2h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $247 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 48¢ $247 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $354 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.11 · official $99.11 · 42 history records