trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 14? | No | 42¢ | 72¢ | $11 | $19 | +$8 (+69%) |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 94¢ | 94¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 14? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | $4 | $4 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 15? | No | 100¢ | 99¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | No | 59¢ | 62¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+5%) |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 48¢ | 48¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 14? | Jun 14 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | Jun 14 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 14 | $5 | $0 | +9% |
| Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 15? | Jun 14 | $4 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C or below on June 15? | Jun 14 | $1 | $0 | -1% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +1.9% | -7.8% | 60% | 0% | -7.9% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +1.9% | -7.8% | 60% | 0% | -7.9% |
| ≤90d | 5 | +1.9% | -7.8% | 60% | 0% | -7.9% |
| all | 5 | +1.9% | -7.8% | 60% | 0% | -7.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -7.8% | 0% | -7.9% |
| 10% | -16.6% | 0% | -16.7% |
| 15% | -24.7% | 0% | -24.8% |
| 20% | -32.1% | 0% | -32.2% |