Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:01:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
71 0x7138…6102 crypto 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate82%36W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$58
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.6% -10.1% 50% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 2 -0.6% -10.1% 50% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 24 -0.6% -10.0% 71% 42% -15.6%
all 44 +10.3% -0.2% 82% 57% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.2% 57% -10.4%
10% -9.8% 30% -19.0%
15% -18.5% 23% -26.8%
20% -26.5% 9% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$96 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses36 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage126d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 21 $78 +$4 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 21 $81 −$5 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 13 $106 −$22 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 13 $103 +$4 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 13 $77 +$26 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 13 $47 +$30 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 13 $46 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 13 $188 −$98 -52%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 05 $350 −$349 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 05 $150 −$107 -71%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 05 $200 +$24 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 05 $100 +$42 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 05 $56 −$56 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 05 $220 +$19 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Apr 05 $300 +$38 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 05 $447 +$37 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 05 $300 +$20 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Apr 05 $30 +$20 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Apr 05 $200 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Apr 05 $200 +$23 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Apr 04 $200 +$21 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 04 $150 −$29 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 04 $100 +$44 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 04 $200 +$40 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Mar 13 $268 +$38 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Mar 13 $200 +$30 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Mar 13 $218 +$20 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Mar 13 $100 +$39 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Feb 26 $177 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Feb 26 $100 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Feb 26 $10 +$16 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Feb 26 $100 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Feb 15 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Feb 15 $115 +$13 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Feb 15 $104 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Feb 15 $38 +$18 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Feb 15 $23 +$15 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Feb 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Feb 15 $68 +$25 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Feb 15 $40 +$9 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Feb 15 $69 +$20 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Feb 15 $35 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Feb 15 $52 +$10 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 28¢ $81 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $81 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $78 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $76 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $81 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $85 69d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $106 69d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $107 69d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $103 69d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $103 69d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $77 69d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $78 69d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $47 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $47 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $46 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $46 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $41 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $43 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $147 69d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $350 77d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $43 77d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $150 77d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $224 77d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $200 77d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $142 77d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $100 77d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $239 77d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $220 77d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $338 77d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $300 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $79.56 · 93 history records