Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:49:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x7138…8c89 sports 145 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$20,581 (-18%) realized +$41,822 · open −$780
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +387% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +260% what you keep after slip
Net edge+260%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate94%15W / 1L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$777per market
Trades / day3025.0pace
Fees−$451est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$68,335now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41,822
7 days+$41,822
14 days+$41,822
30 days+$41,822
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$2,052
sports 26% +$422
crypto 23% +$152
world 0% +$485
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+340.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +386.8% +340.5% 94% 56% +16.6%
≤30d 16 +386.8% +340.5% 94% 56% +16.6%
≤90d 16 +386.8% +340.5% 94% 56% +16.6%
all 16 +386.8% +340.5% 94% 56% +16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3025.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +340.5% 56% +16.6%
10% +298.3% 44% +5.5%
15% ← realistic here +259.8% 38% -4.7%
20% +224.6% 38% -14.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +212% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +387% · $-wt +212% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +54% → late +720% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
20.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,817 vs −$434 · ×6.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×97.37 per $1 lost it wins $97.37
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$68,335
Realized+$41,822
Unrealized−$780
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses15 / 1
Est. fees paid−$451
Open positions367
Markets (closed)16 / 145
History coverage1d
Avg bet$777
Trades / day3025.0
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 367 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Steve Garcia 42¢ 42¢ $2,681 $2,707 +$26 (+1%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,824 $1,838 +$14 (+1%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? No 83¢ 84¢ $1,413 $1,429 +$16 (+1%)
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) France 100¢ 99¢ $1,345 $1,341 −$4 (-0%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? No 97¢ 97¢ $1,250 $1,249 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? No 91¢ 92¢ $1,025 $1,027 +$3 (+0%)
Netherlands leading at halftime? No 63¢ 100¢ $649 $1,023 +$374 (+58%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 73¢ 74¢ $973 $980 +$7 (+1%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Over 61¢ 62¢ $715 $721 +$6 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $732 $720 −$11 (-2%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? No 84¢ 84¢ $720 $715 −$4 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? No 72¢ 70¢ $724 $705 −$20 (-3%)
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? No 85¢ 84¢ $675 $673 −$2 (-0%)
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Haiti 69¢ 69¢ $672 $673 +$1 (+0%)
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? No 89¢ 89¢ $669 $672 +$3 (+1%)
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) LYON 37¢ 86¢ $286 $667 +$381 (+133%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? No 93¢ 94¢ $657 $664 +$7 (+1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? No 71¢ 72¢ $603 $607 +$4 (+1%)
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? No 85¢ 85¢ $591 $591 +$0 (+0%)
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner LYON 52¢ 88¢ $351 $586 +$235 (+67%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 3 Ecuador? No 97¢ 97¢ $572 $575 +$3 (+0%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? No 93¢ 94¢ $564 $567 +$3 (+1%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Yes 7¢ 52¢ $78 $558 +$481 (+618%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 79¢ 78¢ $570 $557 −$12 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? No 76¢ 74¢ $561 $552 −$10 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 +$11,580 +172011%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $84 +$26,351 +31328%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1,495 +$7 +0%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $60 +$693 +1150%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 14 $54 +$1 +2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 14 $448 +$158 +35%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $128 +$726 +567%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 14 $894 +$21 +2%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 14 $131 +$394 +300%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 14 $2,497 +$8 +0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,754 +$99 +6%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $666 +$44 +7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $739 +$160 +22%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $7,781 +$1,529 +20%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $504 +$485 +96%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $2,516 −$434 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $200 0m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $200 0m
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia? BUY No 97¢ $1 0m
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 90¢ $23 0m
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 27¢ $192 0m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $12 0m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 0m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 0m
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 72¢ $256 0m
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 73¢ $259 0m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 1m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 1m
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 26¢ $131 1m
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 26¢ $29 1m
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 69¢ $245 1m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 1m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $199 1m
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 12¢ $33 1m
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 1m
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 12¢ $33 1m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $4 1m
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 26¢ $2 1m
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 90¢ $51 2m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $34 2m
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY No 95¢ $52 2m
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY No 95¢ $52 2m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $420 2m
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 3 Tunisia? BUY No 99¢ $55 2m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68,334.91 · official $67,882.20 (match) · 3500 history records