Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:43:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
71 0x7138…9836 crypto 53 markets active 10h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$14 (+12%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%25W / 28L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -2.1% -11.4% 43% 37% -13.6%
≤30d 53 +17.0% +5.9% 47% 42% +0.4%
≤90d 53 +17.0% +5.9% 47% 42% +0.4%
all 53 +17.0% +5.9% 47% 42% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.9% 42% +0.4%
10% -4.3% 42% -9.2%
15% -13.5% 40% -18.0%
20% -22.0% 40% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses25 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage11d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$4 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$3 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$3 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$4 +625%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$4 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$3 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$3 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 81 history records