Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:46:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x713d…e891 crypto 228 markets active 0h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$939 (-19%) realized −$810 · open −$129
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%93W / 131L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$563now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$87
14 days−$98
30 days−$434
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$343
sports 32% −$240
world 26% −$269
crypto 6% +$12
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -76.3% -78.5% 0% 0% -42.5%
≤30d 15 -68.2% -71.2% 13% 13% -59.0%
≤90d 92 -17.7% -25.6% 35% 34% -30.0%
all 224 -4.9% -14.0% 42% 38% -26.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 38% -26.0%
10% -22.2% 33% -33.1%
15% -29.7% 28% -39.5%
20% -36.6% 23% -45.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$12 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$563
Realized−$810
Unrealized−$129
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses93 / 131
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions4
Markets (closed)224 / 228
History coverage116d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 224 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $475 $334 −$141 (-30%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $100 $101 +$2 (+2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $95 $98 +$3 (+3%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Yes $22 $29 +$7 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $128 −$6 -5%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $19 −$17 -93%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $44 −$43 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $11 −$10 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $91 −$89 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $32 −$31 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $143 −$140 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $70 −$69 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $28 −$27 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 May 27 $51 +$44 +88%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 218.5 May 26 $66 +$63 +95%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $13 −$13 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5 May 25 $44 −$43 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5 May 25 $32 −$31 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $47 +$38 +80%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 23 $56 +$61 +109%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $6 −$6 -98%
Valencia vs. Real Madrid May 22 $43 −$42 -98%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahce May 22 $24 −$23 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $46 −$45 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 May 20 $22 +$18 +82%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $36 +$32 +90%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 207.5 May 18 $26 +$31 +118%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 206.5 May 18 $6 +$8 +128%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $43 −$18 -42%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $15 +$21 +144%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5 May 16 $15 +$10 +69%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5 May 16 $22 −$6 -28%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 212.5 May 14 $15 +$16 +103%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 213.5 May 13 $12 −$1 -8%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 13 $24 +$11 +45%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 213.5 May 12 $12 −$7 -62%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $3 +$1 +43%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 212.5 May 12 $12 +$13 +110%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 11 $29 +$4 +14%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5 May 11 $6 +$2 +27%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $7 +$8 +111%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $6 −$3 -48%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $11 −$4 -35%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 09 $43 −$19 -44%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $3 −$1 -22%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $9 +$4 +42%
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Real Madrid May 07 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $12 +$10 +84%
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Real Madrid May 05 $10 +$6 +59%
Manchester City FC leading at halftime? May 04 $7 −$5 -73%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 04 $90 −$4 -5%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 04 $3 −$3 -84%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $9 +$6 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $2 19m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $2 54m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $19 54m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $122 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $98 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 3h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $12 4h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $239 4h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $102 8h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $13 8h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $12 9h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes $21 28h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 28h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $16 28h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $4 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $4 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $8 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $8 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $71 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $49 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $65 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $80 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $563.16 · official $563.16 (match) · 742 history records