Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:41:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
71 0x713e…f595 crypto 193 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,497 (-4%) realized −$3,496 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate64%123W / 68L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$494per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$225now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$141
30 days−$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$1,717
sports 8% −$736
other 8% −$1,177
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 -3.4% -12.6% 70% 60% -15.4%
≤90d 87 -30.5% -37.1% 43% 40% -58.2%
all 191 -7.8% -16.6% 64% 52% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 52% -13.0%
10% -24.6% 36% -21.3%
15% -31.9% 23% -28.9%
20% -38.5% 16% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$563) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$127 vs −$284 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$225
Realized−$3,496
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses123 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions2
Markets (closed)191 / 193
History coverage140d
Avg bet$494
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 191 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Manel Kape 61¢ 60¢ $124 $123 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $102 $101 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $460 −$442 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $406 +$101 +25%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $216 +$218 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $102 +$49 +48%
Nashville SC vs. New York City FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $82 +$51 +62%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $563 −$522 -93%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié: Both Teams to Score May 18 $51 +$31 +62%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to Score May 17 $225 −$222 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 17 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $178 +$48 +27%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $152 −$7 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 17 $101 +$20 +20%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 17 $563 +$466 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 16 $10 +$15 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 16 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score May 16 $236 −$201 -85%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $196 −$194 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 04 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 04 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 04 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 04 $26 −$26 -100%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 04 $301 +$129 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 03 $114 −$110 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 03 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 03 $47 +$66 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 03 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 03 $258 +$186 +72%
Will Kasımpaşa SK win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $504 −$283 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 03 $57 +$18 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 03 $105 +$173 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 03 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 03 $203 +$47 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 03 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 03 $158 +$194 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 03 $10 +$7 +72%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $101 +$48 +48%
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Sco Apr 25 $454 −$448 -99%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $282 +$69 +24%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-23? Apr 23 $225 +$51 +23%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $200 +$54 +27%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $197 +$31 +16%
Pohang Steelers FC vs. Gwangju FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 22 $100 −$52 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $103 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Manel Kape 60¢ $99 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 60¢ $20 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 60¢ $5 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 61¢ $202 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $44 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $102 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 94¢ $434 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $216 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $224.55 · official $224.55 (match) · 594 history records