Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:46:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x7140…33ee sports 67 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$5 (-2%) realized +$6 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%28W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$5
14 days−$6
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% +$32
other 35% −$30
crypto 14% −$17
weather 6% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -1.9% -11.3% 46% 46% -11.1%
≤30d 63 -4.7% -13.8% 44% 44% -12.7%
≤90d 63 -4.7% -13.8% 44% 44% -12.7%
all 63 -4.7% -13.8% 44% 44% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 44% -12.7%
10% -22.0% 43% -21.0%
15% -29.6% 38% -28.7%
20% -36.5% 29% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses28 / 35
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)63 / 67
History coverage40d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $19 $17 −$1 (-7%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 −$2 -22%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $4 +$2 +38%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$4 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +40%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +76%
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 15 $2 $0 -13%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $3 +$1 +35%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 +$1 +38%
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +66%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $23 −$12 -53%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 +$3 +112%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $3 +$6 +203%
Ben Shelton vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +73%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $3 +$2 +53%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Türkiye to score first vs. Australia? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Scotland to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +43%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4 −$3 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $3 +$3 +114%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +62%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $4 +$5 +114%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 12 $3 $0 -9%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$3 -63%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $3 +$4 +121%
Daniil Medvedev vs. Thijs Boogaard: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +91%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $5 $0 -7%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 12 $5 +$3 +68%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $7 +$4 +50%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 11 $9 −$3 -38%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $8 −$3 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +47%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $5 +$10 +194%
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Bublik/Kyrgios vs Paul/Seggerman Jun 11 $5 +$4 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 10m
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 10m
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 51¢ $4 11m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 23m
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 23m
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $8 25m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $6 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $4 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $3 4h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 58¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 100¢ $9 7h
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia SELL Juan Pablo Ficovich 34¢ $0 9h
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe SELL Flavio Cobolli 24¢ $4 9h
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Flavio Cobolli 17¢ $3 9h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 56¢ $5 10h
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia SELL Juan Pablo Ficovich 38¢ $2 10h
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Juan Pablo Ficovich 42¢ $2 10h
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Darwin Blanch 26¢ $3 11h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY 19¢ $3 11h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 60¢ $3 12h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $4 23h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 23h
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 23h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $3 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.39 · official $38.39 (match) · 168 history records