Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:58:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x7140…b348 crypto 104 markets active 2h ago coverage 360d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$184 (-10%) realized −$184 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate48%50W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$251
other 7% −$42
world 0% +$3
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +38.0% +24.9% 60% 47% -14.7%
≤30d 15 +38.0% +24.9% 60% 47% -14.7%
≤90d 82 -2.0% -11.3% 49% 38% -24.0%
all 104 +3.7% -6.1% 48% 39% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 39% -24.4%
10% -15.1% 32% -31.6%
15% -23.3% 27% -38.2%
20% -30.8% 24% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$12 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

360d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$184
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses50 / 54
Open positions0
Markets (closed)104 / 104
History coverage360d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 104 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 28 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 28 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 28 $53 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$9 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 28 $1 +$2 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 28 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 28 $2 +$3 +126%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $9 +$47 +509%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 27 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Apr 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Apr 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Apr 28 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 28 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 28 $194 −$194 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 28 $167 +$32 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Apr 28 $124 +$66 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 27 $8 +$5 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 27 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 27 $183 +$15 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 27 $9 −$5 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 27 $12 +$11 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 27 $3 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 27 $3 +$3 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 27 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 27 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 27 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 27 $23 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 27 $6 +$7 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 27 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 27 $9 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 27 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 27 $8 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 27 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 27 $2 −$2 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 27 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 27 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 27 $4 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 27 $154 +$24 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $58 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $56 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $4 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 295 history records