trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 9 | -59.4% | -63.2% | 11% | 11% | -36.2% |
| ≤30d | 15 | -39.6% | -45.4% | 27% | 20% | -21.6% |
| ≤90d | 15 | -39.6% | -45.4% | 27% | 20% | -21.6% |
| all | 15 | -39.6% | -45.4% | 27% | 20% | -21.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -45.4% | 20% | -21.6% |
| 10% | -50.6% | 20% | -29.1% |
| 15% | -55.4% | 20% | -36.0% |
| 20% | -59.7% | 13% | -42.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 8¢ | 13¢ | $830 | $1,315 | +$485 (+58%) |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $687 | $923 | +$236 (+34%) |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 13¢ | $562 | $627 | +$66 (+12%) |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 6¢ | $375 | $430 | +$55 (+15%) |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9¢ | 6¢ | $631 | $402 | −$228 (-36%) |
| Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $300 | $375 | +$75 (+25%) |
| Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch? | No | 49¢ | 52¢ | $205 | $216 | +$11 (+5%) |
| Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | Yes | 69¢ | 90¢ | $69 | $90 | +$22 (+31%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Jun 22 | $48 | −$11 | -23% |
| Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? | Jun 17 | $10 | −$10 | -96% |
| o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Jun 17 | $230 | −$223 | -97% |
| France leading at halftime? | Jun 16 | $21 | +$21 | +97% |
| France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score | Jun 16 | $22 | −$21 | -99% |
| France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 | Jun 16 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| Spread: France (-1.5) | Jun 16 | $25 | −$25 | -99% |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $14 | −$14 | -98% |
| Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 15 | $900 | −$75 | -8% |
| Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? | Jun 15 | $204 | +$259 | +127% |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 14 | $510 | +$219 | +43% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 12 | $1,253 | −$385 | -31% |
| Will Luis Suárez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May? | Jun 11 | $183 | +$2 | +1% |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 31 | $102 | −$102 | -100% |