Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:06:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
71 0x7149…86cc other 7 markets active 16h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$210 (-20%) realized −$181 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$747now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$48
sports 9% −$96
crypto 9% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-48.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -43.2% -48.6% 33% 33% -47.9%
≤30d 3 -43.2% -48.6% 33% 33% -47.9%
≤90d 3 -43.2% -48.6% 33% 33% -47.9%
all 3 -43.2% -48.6% 33% 33% -47.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.6% 33% -47.9%
10% -53.6% 33% -52.8%
15% -58.0% 33% -57.4%
20% -62.2% 33% -61.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$96 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$747
Realized−$181
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)3 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-07-01? Yes 78¢ 76¢ $292 $287 −$6 (-2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $195 $194 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 68¢ $195 $180 −$14 (-7%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 44¢ 40¢ $94 $87 −$8 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $98 +$69 +70%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $98 −$96 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $98 −$96 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $98 15h
Will England win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 78¢ $294 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 78¢ $196 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 44¢ $96 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $98 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $98 27h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $98 27h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 18¢ $98 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $747.20 · official $752.46 (match) · 9 history records