trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | No | 6¢ | 6¢ | $24,148 | $26,000 | +$1,852 (+8%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | No | 52¢ | 62¢ | $20,694 | $24,600 | +$3,906 (+19%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? | No | 37¢ | 40¢ | $9,217 | $10,125 | +$908 (+10%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | No | 23¢ | 26¢ | $6,852 | $7,650 | +$798 (+12%) |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Yes | 3¢ | 3¢ | $6,267 | $6,785 | +$518 (+8%) |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Yes | 5¢ | 3¢ | $2,829 | $1,830 | −$999 (-35%) |
| Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $359 | $5 | −$354 (-99%) |
| Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $107 | $2 | −$106 (-99%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? | No | 11¢ | 12¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+14%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? | May 30 | $600 | +$29 | +5% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? | May 29 | $475 | +$29 | +6% |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 | May 26 | $83 | −$19 | -23% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet | May 19 | $524 | −$524 | -100% |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Januar | Apr 16 | $543 | −$543 | -100% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar | Apr 16 | $83 | −$83 | -100% |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March | Apr 16 | $275 | −$275 | -100% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec | Apr 16 | $1,116 | +$2,478 | +222% |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb | Apr 16 | $30,199 | −$30,199 | -100% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem | Apr 16 | $89,635 | −$89,635 | -100% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March | Apr 16 | $2,062 | −$2,062 | -100% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jan | Jan 16 | $129 | +$1,011 | +785% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua | Jan 08 | $628 | −$628 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 4 | -28.0% | -34.8% | 50% | 0% | -35.6% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -44.5% | -49.8% | 27% | 9% | -96.5% |
| all | 13 | +15.0% | +4.1% | 31% | 15% | -95.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +4.1% | 15% | -95.8% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -5.9% | 15% | -96.2% |
| 15% | -15.0% | 15% | -96.5% |
| 20% | -23.3% | 15% | -96.9% |