Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:46:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
71 0x714b…83af weather 79 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$656 (-5%) realized −$656 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%74W / 4L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 95% −$658
crypto 5% +$1
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 25 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 78 -3.3% -12.5% 95% 0% -13.9%
all 78 -3.3% -12.5% 95% 0% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 0% -13.9%
10% -20.9% 0% -22.1%
15% -28.5% 0% -29.6%
20% -35.5% 0% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$174 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$151
Realized−$656
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses74 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)78 / 79
History coverage82d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $151 $151 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $51 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 19? Jun 19 $99 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on June 13? Jun 13 $106 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $44 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $149 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 9? Jun 09 $149 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $148 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 6? Jun 06 $144 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 6°C or below on June 5? Jun 06 $125 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 7°C on June 5? Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 5? Jun 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 4? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C on June 4? Jun 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 3? Jun 03 $148 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $148 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C or below on May 31? Jun 01 $148 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 29? May 30 $147 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 40°C on May 27? May 28 $147 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 26? May 25 $81 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 26? May 25 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on May 26? May 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or higher on May 24? May 23 $147 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 27°C or below on May 18? May 22 $147 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 21°C on May 16? May 15 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 20°C or below on May 16? May 15 $103 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C on May 3? May 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 3? May 03 $120 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 9°C on May 1? May 01 $134 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 8°C on May 1? May 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 29? Apr 30 $144 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 29? Apr 29 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 28? Apr 28 $145 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 26? Apr 26 $144 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 25? Apr 25 $144 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on April 25? Apr 25 $144 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 23? Apr 23 $144 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 22 Apr 22 $141 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 22? Apr 22 $500 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on April 22? Apr 22 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C or below on April 22? Apr 22 $301 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 21? Apr 21 $92 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 21? Apr 21 $928 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 21? Apr 21 $929 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on April 20? Apr 20 $545 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C or below on April 20? Apr 20 $382 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 17? Apr 18 $165 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 18? Apr 18 $296 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 17? Apr 18 $466 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $151 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $51 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $99 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $150 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $150 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $106 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $44 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $149 10d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $149 11d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $148 12d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $144 13d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $17 15d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 7°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $7 15d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 6°C or below on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $125 15d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $6 15d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $148 16d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $148 17d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C or below on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $148 21d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $147 23d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 40°C on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $147 23d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $14 26d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $52 26d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $81 26d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or higher on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $147 28d
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 27°C or below on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $147 34d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 21°C on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $44 36d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 20°C or below on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $103 36d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 3? BUY No 100¢ $120 47d
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C on May 3? BUY No 100¢ $26 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.59 · official $150.59 (match) · 176 history records