Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:01:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
71 0x714e…24b8 sports 154 markets active 4d ago coverage 385d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate45%67W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$208now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$73
14 days+$73
30 days+$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$26
politics 20% +$1
other 20% −$8
tech 3% −$3
crypto 3% +$1
culture 1% −$6
economics 0% −$1
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +13.7% +2.9% 50% 50% +46.1%
≤30d 4 +13.7% +2.9% 50% 50% +46.1%
≤90d 4 +13.7% +2.9% 50% 50% +46.1%
all 150 -9.2% -17.8% 45% 40% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 40% -9.0%
10% -25.7% 38% -17.7%
15% -32.9% 35% -25.7%
20% -39.5% 35% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +62% too few recent
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

385d coverage
Net worth$208
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses67 / 83
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)150 / 154
History coverage385d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $66 $73 +$7 (+11%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-18%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 43¢ 42¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$84 +165%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $30 +$27 +90%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Senators vs. Kings Nov 25 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 25 $1 $0 -38%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 25 $3 $0 -16%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 25 $7 $0 +4%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%? Nov 25 $2 +$6 +304%
Will Trump pardon Diddy in 2025? Nov 25 $8 +$1 +15%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Nov 25 $18 −$1 -6%
Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens Nov 24 $2 +$2 +82%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks Nov 24 $2 +$2 +113%
Bruins vs. Sharks Nov 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Avalanche vs. Blackhawks Nov 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Blues vs. Flyers Nov 21 $2 +$2 +85%
Oilers vs. Lightning Nov 21 $4 +$3 +67%
Lightning vs. Capitals Nov 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Kraken vs. Penguins Nov 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Oilers vs. Panthers Nov 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Blues vs. Islanders Nov 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Sabres Nov 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Wild vs. Penguins Nov 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Islanders vs. Red Wings Nov 21 $2 +$2 +117%
Hurricanes vs. Wild Nov 20 $3 +$4 +144%
Flames vs. Sabres Nov 20 $2 +$2 +108%
Oilers vs. Capitals Nov 20 $4 +$4 +92%
Bruins vs. Ducks Nov 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Blues vs. Maple Leafs Nov 20 $4 +$3 +82%
Rangers vs. Avalanche Nov 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Utah vs. Ducks Nov 18 $2 +$2 +108%
Canadiens vs. Blue Jackets Nov 18 $3 +$2 +82%
Devils vs. Lightning Nov 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Kraken vs. Red Wings Nov 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Canucks vs. Panthers Nov 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Wild Nov 17 $4 +$5 +117%
Hurricanes vs. Bruins Nov 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Islanders vs. Avalanche Nov 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Canucks vs. Lightning Nov 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bruins vs. Canadiens Nov 16 $1 +$1 +133%
Maple Leafs vs. Blackhawks Nov 16 $3 +$3 +113%
Predators vs. Penguins Nov 16 $4 +$4 +89%
Red Wings vs. Rangers Nov 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will iPhone 17 cost $1,000 or more? Nov 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Flyers vs. Blues Nov 15 $2 +$2 +122%
Islanders vs. Utah Nov 15 $2 +$3 +170%
Islanders vs. Golden Knights Nov 14 $4 +$7 +170%
Devils vs. Capitals Nov 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Oilers vs. Hurricanes Nov 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ducks vs. Wild Nov 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY Yes 43¢ $39 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $51 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $8 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $30 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $30 4d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 14¢ $68 5d
Senators vs. Kings BUY Senators 42¢ $66 205d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 205d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $3 205d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 54¢ $7 205d
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%? SELL Yes 97¢ $8 205d
Will Trump pardon Diddy in 2025? SELL No 97¢ $10 205d
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL Yes 75¢ $17 205d
Bruins vs. Sharks BUY Bruins 55¢ $3 207d
Avalanche vs. Blackhawks BUY Blackhawks 33¢ $5 207d
Golden Knights vs. Ducks BUY Ducks 47¢ $2 209d
Lightning vs. Capitals BUY Capitals 53¢ $3 209d
Kraken vs. Penguins BUY Penguins 54¢ $3 209d
Oilers vs. Panthers BUY Panthers 57¢ $3 209d
Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 55¢ $2 209d
Blues vs. Islanders BUY Islanders 60¢ $4 209d
Blackhawks vs. Sabres BUY Blackhawks 38¢ $4 209d
Wild vs. Penguins BUY Penguins 51¢ $2 209d
Bruins vs. Ducks BUY Bruins 24¢ $1 210d
Rangers vs. Avalanche BUY Rangers 35¢ $2 210d
Oilers vs. Lightning BUY Lightning 60¢ $4 210d
Islanders vs. Red Wings BUY Islanders 46¢ $2 210d
Blues vs. Flyers BUY Flyers 54¢ $2 210d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $207.92 · official $207.92 (match) · 391 history records