trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +13.7% | +2.9% | 50% | 50% | +46.1% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +13.7% | +2.9% | 50% | 50% | +46.1% |
| ≤90d | 4 | +13.7% | +2.9% | 50% | 50% | +46.1% |
| all | 150 | -9.2% | -17.8% | 45% | 40% | -9.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -17.8% | 40% | -9.0% |
| 10% | -25.7% | 38% | -17.7% |
| 15% | -32.9% | 35% | -25.7% |
| 20% | -39.5% | 35% | -33.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 14¢ | 16¢ | $66 | $73 | +$7 (+11%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 18¢ | $50 | $56 | +$6 (+12%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 14¢ | $50 | $41 | −$9 (-18%) |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | Yes | 43¢ | 42¢ | $38 | $38 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 14 | $51 | +$84 | +165% |
| New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays | Jun 13 | $30 | +$27 | +90% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $8 | −$8 | -99% |
| Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) | Jun 13 | $30 | −$30 | -99% |
| Senators vs. Kings | Nov 25 | $66 | −$66 | -100% |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Nov 25 | $1 | $0 | -38% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Nov 25 | $3 | $0 | -16% |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Nov 25 | $7 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%? | Nov 25 | $2 | +$6 | +304% |
| Will Trump pardon Diddy in 2025? | Nov 25 | $8 | +$1 | +15% |
| Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Nov 25 | $18 | −$1 | -6% |
| Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens | Nov 24 | $2 | +$2 | +82% |
| Golden Knights vs. Ducks | Nov 24 | $2 | +$2 | +113% |
| Bruins vs. Sharks | Nov 23 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Avalanche vs. Blackhawks | Nov 23 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Blues vs. Flyers | Nov 21 | $2 | +$2 | +85% |
| Oilers vs. Lightning | Nov 21 | $4 | +$3 | +67% |
| Lightning vs. Capitals | Nov 21 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Kraken vs. Penguins | Nov 21 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Oilers vs. Panthers | Nov 21 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Blues vs. Islanders | Nov 21 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Blackhawks vs. Sabres | Nov 21 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Wild vs. Penguins | Nov 21 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Islanders vs. Red Wings | Nov 21 | $2 | +$2 | +117% |
| Hurricanes vs. Wild | Nov 20 | $3 | +$4 | +144% |
| Flames vs. Sabres | Nov 20 | $2 | +$2 | +108% |
| Oilers vs. Capitals | Nov 20 | $4 | +$4 | +92% |
| Bruins vs. Ducks | Nov 20 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Blues vs. Maple Leafs | Nov 20 | $4 | +$3 | +82% |
| Rangers vs. Avalanche | Nov 20 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Utah vs. Ducks | Nov 18 | $2 | +$2 | +108% |
| Canadiens vs. Blue Jackets | Nov 18 | $3 | +$2 | +82% |
| Devils vs. Lightning | Nov 18 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Kraken vs. Red Wings | Nov 18 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Canucks vs. Panthers | Nov 18 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Golden Knights vs. Wild | Nov 17 | $4 | +$5 | +117% |
| Hurricanes vs. Bruins | Nov 17 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Islanders vs. Avalanche | Nov 17 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Canucks vs. Lightning | Nov 16 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bruins vs. Canadiens | Nov 16 | $1 | +$1 | +133% |
| Maple Leafs vs. Blackhawks | Nov 16 | $3 | +$3 | +113% |
| Predators vs. Penguins | Nov 16 | $4 | +$4 | +89% |
| Red Wings vs. Rangers | Nov 16 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will iPhone 17 cost $1,000 or more? | Nov 15 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Flyers vs. Blues | Nov 15 | $2 | +$2 | +122% |
| Islanders vs. Utah | Nov 15 | $2 | +$3 | +170% |
| Islanders vs. Golden Knights | Nov 14 | $4 | +$7 | +170% |
| Devils vs. Capitals | Nov 14 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Oilers vs. Hurricanes | Nov 14 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Ducks vs. Wild | Nov 14 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |