Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:03:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

71
0x714f…66d5
politics · 851 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$8,459 +12%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$6,327 · open +$1,988
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$14,872
Realized+$6,327
Unrealized+$1,988
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses286 / 468
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions98
Markets (closed)754 / 851
History coverage143d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 98 History 754 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$720
7 days−$320
14 days+$1,935
30 days+$2,651
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 81¢ 85¢ $4,053 $4,232 +$180 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 61¢ 55¢ $1,220 $1,100 −$120 (-10%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 22¢ 88¢ $111 $443 +$332 (+298%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? No 5¢ 95¢ $23 $406 +$384 (+1669%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 31¢ 46¢ $232 $349 +$116 (+50%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 31¢ 84¢ $118 $318 +$200 (+169%)
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026? Yes 24¢ 36¢ $190 $288 +$98 (+51%)
Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4? No 19¢ 88¢ $53 $250 +$197 (+376%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 12¢ 20¢ $149 $243 +$93 (+62%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 77¢ 80¢ $231 $238 +$8 (+3%)
Christopher Luxon out by September 30? No 26¢ 84¢ $70 $222 +$152 (+219%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 22¢ 29¢ $161 $216 +$54 (+34%)
Blue wave in 2026? No 13¢ 28¢ $90 $196 +$106 (+119%)
Will Apyx launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 11¢ 28¢ $80 $196 +$116 (+145%)
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 7¢ 12¢ $105 $188 +$82 (+79%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? No 18¢ 18¢ $185 $185 +$0 (+0%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? No 15¢ 11¢ $257 $183 −$73 (-29%)
Will Theo launch a token by September 30 2026? No 13¢ 72¢ $32 $180 +$148 (+454%)
Will South Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? No 30¢ 91¢ $60 $179 +$119 (+199%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 76¢ 80¢ $152 $159 +$7 (+5%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 52¢ 62¢ $130 $156 +$26 (+20%)
Will Christopher Taylor be the Democratic nominee for the Ann Arbor Mayoral Election? No 27¢ 49¢ $82 $149 +$67 (+81%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Yes 31¢ 41¢ $114 $148 +$35 (+31%)
Spain snap election called in 2026? No 68¢ 64¢ $152 $145 −$7 (-5%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $122 $144 +$23 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 12 $69 −$51 -73%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 12 $420 −$260 -62%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 12 $665 −$293 -44%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 12 $102 −$6 -6%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $71 +$99 +139%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 11 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Trump praise Gianni Infantino by June 30? Jun 11 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Jermaine Johnson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic Jun 10 $36 −$36 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $137 −$137 -100%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $136 +$392 +289%
Will Mario Almici win the 2026 Legnano mayoral election? Jun 08 $59 −$33 -56%
Will Mauro Gattinoni win the 2026 Lecco mayoral election? Jun 08 $53 −$42 -80%
Will Pasquale Mauri win the 2026 Angri mayoral election? Jun 08 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Vincenzo Ceccarelli win the 2026 Arezzo mayoral election? Jun 08 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Salvatore Alfano win the 2026 Pompei mayoral election? Jun 08 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Michele Sodano win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election? Jun 08 $59 +$167 +282%
Will Giovanni Nappi win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral election Jun 08 $56 +$228 +410%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $41 +$8 +20%
Will Trump say "Operation Epic Fury" this week? Jun 08 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Trump say "Hottest Nation" this week? Jun 08 $42 −$42 -100%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 08 $86 −$86 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $87 +$214 +245%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $1,616 +$116 +7%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 07 $252 −$227 -90%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $130 +$3 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $46 +$2 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $609 +$19 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $1,097 +$184 +17%
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? Jun 07 $15 +$11 +75%
Will Trump say "Child" during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Jerry Demings be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor? Jun 06 $212 −$184 -87%
Will Donald Trump dance on June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $27 +$66 +242%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $3 +$22 +793%
Will Magnus Carlsen win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 04 $112 +$213 +190%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in May? Jun 04 $82 +$256 +314%
Will Kim Dong-yeon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Jun 04 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Shin Yong-han win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial Jun 04 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? Jun 04 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Kim Doo-kyum win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 04 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Huh Tae-jung win the 2026 Daejeon mayoral election? Jun 04 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Lee Jang-woo win the 2026 Daejeon mayoral election? Jun 04 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Cho Sangho win the 2026 Sejong mayoral election? Jun 04 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Kim Tae-heum win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial e Jun 04 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $128 −$128 -100%
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 04 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $116 −$116 -100%
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30? Jun 04 $86 +$274 +317%
Will Yang Seung-jo win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 04 $35 +$90 +257%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 32% +$5,594
other 28% +$2,403
politics 27% +$1,665
crypto 5% −$159
tech 4% −$841
economics 2% −$98
sports 1% +$13
culture 0% −$244
finance 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $813 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $3,240 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $19 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 13¢ $161 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL Yes 7¢ $73 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 16¢ $96 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $31 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $1,220 7h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $105 23h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 29¢ $87 23h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 17¢ $102 23h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $26 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $8 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $4 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $30 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $3 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $4 24h
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 23¢ $24 25h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 33¢ $16 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 33¢ $37 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 33¢ $21 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 33¢ $70 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $14 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 21¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +1.1% -8.5% 39% 27% -13.9%
≤30d 127 +25.1% +13.2% 38% 35% +9.4%
≤90d 426 +17.9% +6.7% 34% 32% +10.3%
all 754 +13.1% +2.3% 38% 33% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.3% 33% +0.2%
10% -7.5% 27% -9.4%
15% -16.4% 26% -18.2%
20% -24.6% 26% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,872.43 · official $14,872.57 (match) · 3500 history records