Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:21:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x7153…2424 crypto 1860 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 40d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$328 (-4%) realized −$328 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate72%1501W / 577L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day49.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,260
7 days−$2,267
14 days−$2,249
30 days−$2,249
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 411 -58.8% -62.7% 34% 33% -72.2%
≤30d 1104 -21.7% -29.2% 64% 63% -36.1%
≤90d 2078 -12.5% -20.9% 72% 70% -31.0%
all 2078 -12.5% -20.9% 72% 70% -31.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.9% 70% -31.0%
10% ← realistic here -28.4% 24% -37.6%
15% -35.4% 1% -43.7%
20% -41.7% 0% -49.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$328
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses1501 / 577
Open positions0
Markets (closed)2078 / 1860
History coverage40d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day49.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 2078 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $8 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $8 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $8 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records