Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:22:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x7158…0143 politics 124 markets active 2h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$34 (-0%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%15W / 108L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$10
14 days−$20
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% −$12
other 28% −$19
sports 14% −$9
crypto 9% −$3
world 5% −$1
finance 4% +$3
economics 4% −$2
culture 2% −$3
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -0.7% -10.2% 5% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 65 -0.6% -10.1% 8% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 110 -0.5% -9.9% 9% 0% -9.8%
all 123 -0.4% -9.9% 12% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses15 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)123 / 124
History coverage99d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 98¢ 98¢ $57 $57 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $173 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $46 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $56 $0 -1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $47 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 16 $108 −$1 -1%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $99 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $166 −$1 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $97 −$1 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $101 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $63 $0 -0%
Will Austria reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 11 $44 $0 -1%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $57 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 11 $29 $0 -0%
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $56 −$2 -3%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $50 −$2 -4%
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $47 $0 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $54 $0 -0%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 07 $21 $0 -1%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $51 $0 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 06 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 06 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $36 $0 -0%
Will Senegal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 05 $24 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 05 $152 −$1 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 05 $64 $0 -0%
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $48 −$3 -7%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 04 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $47 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $43 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $58 −$1 -1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $42 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $44 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,417 −$3 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $58 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $811 −$2 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $98 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $114 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $58 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $324 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $48 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $159 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $109 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $57 1h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $65 2h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $65 9h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $45 9h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $46 17h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 91¢ $56 18h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 91¢ $56 22h
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 92¢ $47 23h
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 92¢ $47 31h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 96¢ $55 31h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $56 38h
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $50 39h
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $50 44h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $13 45h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $3 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $10 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $52 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $52 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 98¢ $41 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 98¢ $41 2d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $58 3d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $52 3d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $52 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $46 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $47 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $47 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $47 4d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $62 4d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $63 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.40 · official $57.40 (match) · 472 history records