Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:58:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

71
0x715d…c559
crypto · 40 markets active 2h ago
3.5score
+$510 +21%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$525 · open −$16
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$525
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses15 / 23
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage99d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 2 History 38 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$36
14 days+$474
30 days+$510
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-98%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 1¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-97%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $63 −$62 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $17 +$26 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 31 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $40 −$40 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $939 +$609 +65%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $22 −$6 -29%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $22 −$3 -12%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $22 −$3 -12%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $34 +$1 +3%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $64 −$21 -33%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $64 +$2 +3%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $200 −$57 -28%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $200 −$26 -13%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $200 +$6 +3%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $200 +$14 +7%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $200 +$128 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 01 $2 +$3 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 30 $1 +$1 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 30 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Mar 06 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Mar 06 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 06 $3 +$4 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 06 $5 +$3 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 54% −$52
sports 39% +$603
crypto 7% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $28 9h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $14 12h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 13h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 39¢ $17 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 12d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 99¢ $990 13d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 54¢ $558 13d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 13d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 29¢ $154 13d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 40¢ $34 13d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 41¢ $42 13d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 42¢ $8 13d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 13d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 42¢ $66 13d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 42¢ $30 13d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $300 13d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $298 13d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $16 23d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $19 23d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $19 23d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $35 23d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $43 23d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $66 23d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $143 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +25.8% +13.8% 50% 50% -50.3%
≤30d 29 -44.1% -49.4% 28% 14% +10.1%
≤90d 34 -35.0% -41.2% 32% 21% +10.0%
all 38 -21.5% -29.0% 39% 29% +10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.0% 29% +10.4%
10% -35.8% 29% -0.1%
15% -42.0% 29% -9.8%
20% -47.7% 29% -18.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.39 · official $0.39 (match) · 175 history records