Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:38:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

71
0x715d…b078
other · 30 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$10 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$43
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses5 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)16 / 30
History coverage4d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%
Chart Positions 13 History 16 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Paraguay? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Paraguay? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Peru 1 - 2 Spain? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Down 49¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Down 32¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Peru 0 - 1 Spain? Yes 13¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Peru 1 - 0 Spain? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Peru 1 - 1 Spain? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Peru 0 - 2 Spain? Yes 17¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Up 31¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +38%
Exact Score: Peru 1 - 2 Spain? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Peru 1 - 1 Spain? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Peru 0 - 1 Spain? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Peru 1 - 0 Spain? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Peru 0 - 2 Spain? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$4 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 77% −$10
crypto 22% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 10h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Paraguay? BUY Yes $1 10h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes $1 10h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes $1 10h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? AND Will Paraguay win o BUY $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Peru 1 - 2 Spain? BUY Yes $1 4d
Exact Score: Peru 1 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes $1 4d
Exact Score: Peru 0 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Peru 1 - 0 Spain? BUY Yes $1 4d
Exact Score: Peru 0 - 2 Spain? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-55.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -50.5% -55.2% 31% 31% -29.6%
≤30d 16 -50.5% -55.2% 31% 31% -29.6%
≤90d 16 -50.5% -55.2% 31% 31% -29.6%
all 16 -50.5% -55.2% 31% 31% -29.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.2% 31% -29.6%
10% -59.5% 31% -36.3%
15% -63.4% 31% -42.5%
20% -67.0% 12% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.71 · official $42.71 (match) · 42 history records