Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:59:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
71 0x715d…cfe7 other 4 markets active 3d ago coverage 42d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$100 (-25%) realized −$100 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 42d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-40.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -34.2% -40.5% 25% 25% -35.2%
≤30d 4 -34.2% -40.5% 25% 25% -35.2%
≤90d 4 -34.2% -40.5% 25% 25% -35.2%
all 4 -34.2% -40.5% 25% 25% -35.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.5% 25% -35.2%
10% -46.2% 25% -41.4%
15% -51.4% 25% -47.1%
20% -56.1% 0% -52.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$53 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage42d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $42 −$41 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $143 −$101 -71%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $97 +$46 +48%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Jun 16 $112 −$15 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $42 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 23¢ $42 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $143 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $143 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $97 4d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? SELL Yes 15¢ $96 4d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY Yes 16¢ $112 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 7 history records