Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:46:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
71 0x7160…cce2 other 871 markets active 0h ago coverage 193d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$32 (+0%) realized −$16 · open +$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate80%696W / 170L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$255per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$337now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$85
7 days−$33
14 days−$90
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$149
crypto 8% +$12
tech 5% −$227
weather 4% +$14
sports 4% +$52
culture 2% +$1
politics 1% −$14
finance 0% −$18
world 0% −$8
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +0.4% -9.1% 48% 48% -10.9%
≤30d 170 -2.4% -11.7% 60% 29% -10.8%
≤90d 383 +0.3% -9.2% 79% 15% -9.3%
all 866 +0.2% -9.3% 80% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 7% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 4% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 4% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$11 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$337
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$48
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses696 / 170
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions5
Markets (closed)866 / 871
History coverage193d
Avg bet$255
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 866 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 100¢ $49 $119 +$70 (+144%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 48¢ $99 $94 −$5 (-5%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Detroit Tigers 46¢ 46¢ $49 $49 +$1 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 48¢ 38¢ $49 $38 −$11 (-22%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $43 $36 −$7 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $49 −$45 -92%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $35 −$14 -39%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 17 $8 $0 -4%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $54 −$8 -15%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $70 −$6 -8%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $31 +$4 +12%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $33 −$24 -72%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 17 $21 $0 -1%
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) Jun 17 $22 −$10 -46%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$22 +44%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
Overwatch: ENTER FORCE.36 vs Please Not Hero Ban (BO3) - OCS Japan Sta Jun 16 $28 +$12 +44%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $30 +$17 +57%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $41 +$21 +52%
Game Handicap: Game Master (-1.5) vs Grey Trac (+1.5) Jun 16 $59 −$59 -100%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $66 +$37 +56%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $49 +$47 +97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $49 +$60 +124%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $45 +$24 +53%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $19 +$10 +50%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $17 +$55 +317%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $9 +$18 +203%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) Jun 15 $13 −$2 -17%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $27 +$48 +174%
Overwatch: Team Liquid vs LuneX Gaming (BO3) - OCS North America Stage Jun 15 $76 −$36 -48%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $15 +$3 +20%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $37 −$37 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $35 +$34 +96%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $70 +$35 +50%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $18 +$28 +158%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 14 $32 +$26 +79%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $36 −$12 -34%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $8 +$2 +33%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Boston Breach - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $26 +$4 +14%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $58 +$38 +65%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $38 +$16 +41%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $38 +$17 +43%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $38 +$17 +44%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $38 −$38 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $29 +$37 +128%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 46¢ $50 1m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $50 12m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $34 15m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 15m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 4¢ $4 20m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $50 57m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 58m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $18 58m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 59m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $8 59m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $50 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 45¢ $45 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 46¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL TDK 25¢ $21 6h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 39¢ $30 6h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 43¢ $5 6h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 27¢ $8 8h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 49¢ $19 10h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 49¢ $21 10h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 73¢ $7 13h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner SELL Game Master 31¢ $46 13h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 28¢ $64 13h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $35 13h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 12¢ $9 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $20 13h
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) SELL KRÜ Blaze 13¢ $12 13h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 35¢ $54 13h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 30¢ $53 13h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 29¢ $16 13h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 41¢ $33 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $336.91 · official $350.88 · 2502 history records