Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:16:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x7163…d55d other 254 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$87 (-0%) realized −$87 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 242L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$17
14 days−$26
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$45
sports 25% −$23
politics 10% −$9
economics 6% −$7
crypto 6% −$8
culture 6% −$7
world 3% $0
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 75 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 178 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 254 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 242
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)254 / 254
History coverage136d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 254 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $321 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $784 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $492 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $354 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $20 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $259 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $277 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $389 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $459 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $124 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $508 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $350 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $53 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $228 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $292 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $180 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $181 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $345 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $321 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $344 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $241 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $508 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $54 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $317 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $280 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 11 $55 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $1,120 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $55 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $515 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $354 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $360 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 09 $259 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $295 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $145 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $255 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $56 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $57 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $218 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $595 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 07 $370 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $362 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $155 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $502 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $181 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $201 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $465 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 04 $59 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $51 55m
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $51 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $51 3h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 7h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 9h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 11h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 15h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 16h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 22h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 24h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $52 28h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $52 30h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $19 31h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $20 32h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 34h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 35h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 37h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 39h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 40h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 41h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 44h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 46h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 47h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $52 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $52 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1428 history records